Journal: CSS Risk and Resilience Reports

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Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich

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Publications 1 - 10 of 44
  • Lehren aus der Flüchtlingskrise 2015/2016: Ergebnisse des D-A-CH Expertenworkshops
    Item type: Report
    Roth, Florian; Maduz, Linda (2017)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Die europäische Flüchtlingskrise 2015/2016 stellte sowohl Aufnahme- als auch Transitstaaten vor zahlreiche Herausforderungen. Deutschland, Österreich und die Schweiz waren von der Flüchtlingskrise in unterschiedlichem Masse betroffen. Die in die Bewältigung der Krise involvierten Organisationen und Entscheidungsträger waren aber häufig mit ähnlichen Herausforderungen konfrontiert. Einerseits mussten unter Zeitdruck politisch-strategische Entscheide mit weitreichenden Konsequenzen getroffen werden, andererseits standen auch die staatlichen Strukturen und Prozesse auf operativer Ebene unter grosser Belastung: die Kapazitäten für die Anmeldung, Registrierung und Unterkunft der Flüchtlinge mussten in kürzester Zeit deutlich erhöht bzw. gänzlich neu geschaffen werden. Aufgrund der Grösse der Krise und der unbekannten Elemente, die sie enthielt, gestaltete sich die Planung schwierig. Lösungen wurden häufig ad hoc getroffen. Welche längerfristigen Erkenntnisse lassen sich aus der Krise ziehen? Wie lässt sich das durch die Krisenerfahrung gewonnene Wissen sichern und zur Verbesserung der personellen, institutionellen und materiellen Infrastruktur des Krisenmanagements nutzen? Um diese und weitere Fragen rund um das Thema Flüchtlingskrise zu diskutieren und den Erfahrungsaustausch zwischen Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz (D-A-CH) zu fördern, organisierte das Center for Security Studies (CSS) gemeinsam mit dem Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz (BABS) vom 27.-28. Oktober 2016 einen D-A-CH Expertenworkshop in Zürich. Die vielfältigen Beiträge und Diskussionen sind im kürzlich erschienenen Workshop-Bericht dargestellt.1 In Ergänzung hierzu präsentiert das vorliegende Dokument, basierend auf den Workshop-Beiträgen, einige der zentralen Herausforderungen der Flüchtlingskrise in stark verdichteter Form. Zudem werden einige der diskutierten Lösungsansätze umrissen. Im Folgenden werden zunächst die auf politisch-strategischer Ebene relevanten Herausforderungen und Lösungswege skizziert. Anschliessend werden Erkenntnisse, die primär auf operativer Ebene wichtig sind, aufgeführt.
  • Trendanalyse Bevölkerungsschutz 2035
    Item type: Report
    Kamberaj, Jurgena; Aebi, Simon; Hauri, Andrin; et al. (2024)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Dieser Bericht ist die dritte Ausgabe einer fortlaufenden Publikationsserie, die sich mit der Identifizierung und Analyse von Trends befasst, die für den Bevölkerungsschutz relevant sind. Er bietet einen Überblick über relevante Trends, von denen zu erwarten ist, dass sie in den nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf das Schweizer Bevölkerungsschutzsystem haben werden. Der Bericht ist Teil der Bestrebungen des Bundesamtes für Bevölkerungsschutz (BABS) zur Stärkung ihrer Antizipationsfähigkeiten im Bereich des Bevölkerungsschutzes, welcher dynamischen Entwicklungen unterliegt, was ständige Anpassungen erfordert. Er unterstreicht die Bedeutung der frühzeitigen Erkennung und Bewertung von neuen Herausforderungen und Chancen, insbesondere für politische Entscheidungsträgerinnen und -träger sowie andere Stakeholder. Das Hauptziel dieses Berichts besteht darin, zu einer soliden Grundlage für die Anpassung und Optimierung der Bevölkerungsschutzstrategie auf den drei Regierungsebenen (Bund, Kantone, Gemeinden) beizutragen. Er soll ein unterstützendes Instrument sein, um Schlüsselbereiche für Investitionen, Optimierungspotenzial und strategische Prioritäten zu identifizieren.
  • Horizon Scanning in Government
    Item type: Report
    Habegger, Beat (2009)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Confronted with an increasingly interconnected and dynamically changing world, governments are developing new ways of thinking ahead and planning strategically to cope better with future threats and opportunities. This report on Horizon Scanning in Government presents an innovative approach to support governments in dealing with uncertainties and in envisaging and realizing the policies they desire. It outlines the concept and purpose of horizon scanning, reviews the experiences of the United Kingdom, Singapore, and the Netherlands, and develops perspectives for the establishment of horizon scanning in Switzerland.
  • Preventing and Managing Large-Scale Disasters in Swiss Cities
    Item type: Report
    Prior, Tim; Roth, Florian; Maduz, Linda (2016)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    This report assessed and analyzed the current state of Switzerland’s disaster management at the city level. More specifically, the study provides an overview of how major Swiss cities prepare and plan for large-scale disasters. The study examined cities’ planning and organization concerning the major risks they identified. A key element of the analysis was an examination of the institutional set-up that cities have put in place in the area of disaster prevention and management The present study was designed as a qualitative case description of Switzerland’s largest urban areas. Seven major Swiss cities and their agglomerations were selected for the study: Zurich, Geneva, Basel, Bern, Lausanne, Lucerne, and Lugano. The results of the analysis provides a systematic and deeper understanding of the role Swiss cities are playing in modern civil protection: First, conducting systematic risk analyses is a relatively recent development in Swiss cities, and is as such characterized by a marked diversity in approaches. On the political-strategic level, legal mandates, plans and strategies are less established in this area than in the response phase. Also, on the operational level, little standardization exists across cities with regard to how risk identification and analyses are carried out. Second, to fulfill their tasks, civil protection organizations depend on a broad array of partners and resources. Results from this analysis demonstrate that three factors are particularly important in urban disaster management practice: adequate financial support, and other resources; political support (both at the city level, and at higher levels); and a strong partnership with the public. Third, institutional ambiguities impacts on civil protection efficiency. While responsibilities are clear in legal terms, responsibility, competency, and task sharing are in reality rather complicated in Switzerland’s subsidiary system. These challenges are further intensified by accelerated urbanization. A clearer allocation of responsibilities across the different political levels, acknowledging the changing role of cities in civil protection would help cities establish more systematic and steady structures (institutional organization, budget, etc.) for disaster management. This means tailoring initiatives and concepts developed at higher political levels to the operational needs of the city. While in normal times, cooperation between the city and the federal level works well, the decentralized system underlines potential weaknesses in large-scale events.
  • Measuring Individual Disaster Preparedness
    Item type: Report
    Kohler, Kevin; Hauri, Andrin; Roth, Florian; et al. (2020)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    This Risk and Resilience Report provides an overview of recent individual preparedness research. The most common indicator is the availability of an emergency supply kit that mitigates short-term supply gaps. Other preparedness indicators include the prevalence of cash, insurance, vaccines, safety installations in buildings and access to vehicles. Preparedness also includes cognitive factors like risk knowledge, pre-defined strategies to coordinate communication and meetings, hazard-specific behaviors and skills, such as first aid and fire fighting training. The report also explores the data availability of these preparedness indicators for Switzerland and highlights existing gaps in the preparedness literature with regards to empirical evidence for the composition and effectiveness of emergency supply kits, as well as the specific challenges of suburban contexts. Recommendations for future analyses include: individual preparedness actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic; an evaluation of smartphones’ potential for digitizing disaster preparedness tools; impacts of the sharing economy on access to cars, housing and tools during disasters; and an ethnography of people that make individual disaster preparedness part of their identity and lifestyle.
  • National Risk Assessments of Cross-Border Risks
    Item type: Report
    Kohler, Kevin (2023)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    This report compares the assessment of nine European countries of five cross-border risks: An electricity supply shortage, a nuclear accident, a pandemic, severe space weather, and a volcanic outbreak. Even though the selected countries have correlated risk profiles for these hazards, the report finds some significant differences in their likelihood and impact estimations. For example, for a severe nuclear accident scenario the likelihood span is up to 10’000x, and for a large volcanic outbreak up to 5’000x. Some of these differences can be traced back to methodological choices, such as probabilistic safety assessments versus historical frequency, the dataset used, or modelling adaptions, such as the downgrading of the severity of historical pandemics to account for modern medicine. Lastly, the report also highlights a number of general considerations for national risk assessments and cross-border risks. For example, the standard 5x5 risk matrix used in ISO 31010 and EU recommendations can introduce distortions in risk communication and priorization, such as underestimating risks with extreme impacts
  • Individuelle Katastrophenvorsorge
    Item type: Report
    Maduz, Linda; Prior, Tim; Roth, Florian; et al. (2018)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Switzerland’s contemporary threat and risk landscape has changed in recent years. Indeed, the risks that now draw the attention of experts and policymakers now include cyber-attacks, pandemics, terrorist attacks and blackouts. But which risks do the Swiss public perceive as the most worrisome? How does risk perception differ between experts and members of the general population? Are risks perceived differently depending on whether they are natural, social or technical in origin? And what are the information needs of the Swiss public with regard to these threats? This CSS Risk and Resilience Report addresses these questions and more.
  • Preparing for Disasters in Global Cities
    Item type: Report
    Prior, Tim; Roth, Florian (2013)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Today, the majority of the globe’s inhabitants live in urban areas. According to all forecasts cities will continue to grow in the coming decades. At the same time, cities have become increasingly connected as a result of economic, political and cultural globalization. In the context of urban security, the growing complexity these connections bring may present a double-edged sword: cities can be both the most secure, or most dangeropus places when disaster strikes. The very characteristics of urban life – such as population concentrations, compact architectural structures, diverse socio-demographics, as well as complex, interconnected infrastructure systems – present both challenges and opportunities in terms of managing disasters in cities.
  • Volunteerism in Disaster Management
    Item type: Report
    Roth, Florian; Prior, Tim (2019)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Collaborations of civic society and public administration play a key role for successful emergency and disaster management. However, factors including new technologies, large-scale disaster events, and a differently engaged population are combining to bring new, spontaneous or emergent forms of volunteerism to official disaster management activities. This report addresses the challenges and opportunities of integrating such volunteers in disaster management and civil protection. Further, it details 1) the relationships between state crisis management and the social environment in which these relationships take place; and 2) the instruments available to support volunteerism in the context of disaster management and civil protection.
  • Trend Analysis Civil Protection 2030
    Item type: Report
    Hauri, Andrin; Kohler, Kevin; Roth, Florian; et al. (2020)
    CSS Risk and Resilience Reports
    Artificial Intelligence, Digitalization, Climate Change – many overarching trends and developments have the potential to alter the lives of billions of people in the coming years. For society, most of these trends represent both a challenge and an opportunity. In any case, they will also affect the civil protection system in Switzerland. The objective of this report is therefore twofold. First, it aims to provide a systematic analysis of twelve technological, societal and environmental trends for the next ten years, and second, it makes recommendations on how the civil protection system in Switzerland could be optimized in view of their impact. The analysis thus serves as a supportive foundation for further developing the civil protection system through targeted, coordinated and comprehensible strategic decision-making. The report is a continuation of the first Risk and Resilience Report on trends in civil protection from 2014, with an extended time horizon to 2030.
Publications 1 - 10 of 44