Journal: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Abbreviation

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Publisher

European Geophysical Society

Journal Volumes

ISSN

1561-8633
1684-9981

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2019 - 201912020 - 20244
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Publications 1 - 5 of 5
  • Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
    Item type: Journal Article
    Portmann, Raphael; Schmid, Timo; Villiger, Leonie; et al. (2024)
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    Hail represents a major threat to agriculture in Switzerland, and assessments of current and future hail risk are of paramount importance for decision-making in the insurance industry and the agricultural sector. However, relating observational information on hail with crop-specific damage is challenging. Here, we build and systematically assess an open-source model to predict hail damage footprints for field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevine from the operational radar product Maximum Expected Severe Hail Size (MESHS) at different spatial resolutions. To this end, we combine the radar information with detailed geospatial information on agricultural land use and geo-referenced damage data from a crop insurer for 12 recent hail events in Switzerland. We find that for field crops model skill gradually increases when the spatial resolution is reduced from 1 km down to 8 km. For even lower resolutions, the skill is diminished again. In contrast, for grapevine, decreasing model resolution below 1 km tends to reduce skill, which is attributed to the different spatial distribution of field crops and grapevine in the landscape. It is shown that identifying a suitable MESHS thresholds to model damage footprints always involves trade-offs. For the lowest possible MESHS threshold (20 mm) the model predicts damage about twice as often as observed (high frequency bias and false alarm ratio), but it also has a high probability of detection (80 %). The frequency bias decreases for larger thresholds and reaches an optimal value close to 1 for MESHS thresholds of 30–40 mm. However, this comes at the cost of a substantially lower probability of detection (around 50 %), while overall model skill, as measured by the Heidke skill score (HSS), remains largely unchanged (0.41–0.44). We argue that, ultimately, the best threshold therefore depends on the relative costs of a false alarm versus a missed event. Finally, the frequency of false alarms is substantially reduced and skill is improved (HSS = 0.54) when only areas with high cropland density are considered. Results from this simple, open-source model show that modelling of hail damage footprints to crops from single-polarization radar in Switzerland is skilful and is best done at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine.
  • Deriving rainfall thresholds for landsliding at the regional scale: Daily and hourly resolutions, normalisation, and antecedent rainfall
    Item type: Journal Article
    Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter (2020)
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    Rainfall thresholds are a simple and widely used method to forecast landslide occurrence. We provide a comprehensive data-driven assessment of the effects of rainfall temporal resolution (hourly versus daily) on rainfall threshold performance in Switzerland, with sensitivity to two other important aspects which appear in many landslide studies the normalisation of rainfall, which accounts for local climatology, and the inclusion of antecedent rainfall as a proxy of soil water state prior to landsliding. We use an extensive landslide inventory with over 3800 events and several daily and hourly, station, and gridded rainfall datasets to explore different scenarios of rainfall threshold estimation. Our results show that although hourly rainfall did show the best predictive performance for landslides, daily data were not far behind, and the benefits of hourly resolutions can be masked by the higher uncertainties in threshold estimation connected to using short records. We tested the impact of several typical actions of users, like assigning the nearest rain gauge to a landslide location and filling in unknown timing, and we report their effects on predictive performance. We find that localisation of rainfall thresholds through normalisation compensates for the spatial heterogeneity in rainfall regimes and landslide erosion process rates and is a good alternative to regionalisation. On top of normalisation by mean annual precipitation or a high rainfall quantile, we recommend that non-Triggering rainfall be included in rainfall threshold estimation if possible. Finally, while antecedent rainfall threshold approaches used at the local scale are not successful at the regional scale, we demonstrate that there is predictive skill in antecedent rain as a proxy of soil wetness state, despite the large heterogeneity of the study domain. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
  • Ensemble flood forecasting considering dominant runoff processes - Part 1: Set-up and application to nested basins (Emme, Switzerland)
    Item type: Journal Article
    Antonetti, Manuel; Horat, Christoph; Sideris, Ioannis V.; et al. (2019)
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    Flash floods evolve rapidly during and after heavy precipitation events and represent a potential risk for society. To predict the timing and magnitude of a peak runoff, it is common to couple meteorological and hydrological models in a forecasting chain. However, hydrological models rely on strong simplifying assumptions and hence need to be calibrated. This makes their application difficult in catchments where no direct observation of runoff is available. To address this gap, a flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on (i) a nowcasting product which combines radar and rain gauge rainfall data (CombiPrecip); (ii) meteorological data from state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-1, COSMO-E); (iii) operationally available soil moisture estimations from the PREVAH hydrological model; and (iv) a process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration (RGM-PRO). This last component uses information on the spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes from the so-called maps of runoff types, which can be derived with different mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge. RGM-PRO is event-based and parametrised a priori based on the results of sprinkling experiments. This prediction chain has been evaluated using data from April to September 2016 in the Emme catchment, a medium-sized flash-flood-prone basin in the Swiss Prealps. Two novel forecasting chains were set up with two different maps of runoff types, which allowed sensitivity of the forecast performance to the mapping approaches to be analysed. Furthermore, special emphasis was placed on the predictive power of the new forecasting chains in nested subcatchments when compared with a prediction chain including an original version of the runoff generation module of PREVAH calibrated for one event. Results showed a low sensitivity of the predictive power to the amount of expert knowledge included for the mapping approach. The forecasting chain including a map of runoff types with high involvement of expert knowledge did not guarantee more skill. In the larger basins of the Emme region, process-based forecasting chains revealed comparable skill to a prediction system including a conventional hydrological model. In the small nested subcatchments, although the process-based forecasting chains outperformed the original runoff generation module, no forecasting chain showed satisfying skill in the sense that it could be useful for decision makers. Despite the short period available for evaluation, preliminary outcomes of this study show that operational flash-flood predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on runoff processes, as no long-term runoff measurements are needed for calibration.
  • Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
    Item type: Journal Article
    Trevlopoulos, Konstantinos; Gehl, Pierre; Negulescu, Caterina; et al. (2024)
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which may be evaluated and validated individually, although evaluating and validating these types of models as a whole is challenging due to the lack of recognized procedures. Estimations made with other models, as well as observations of damage from past earthquakes, lend themselves to evaluating the components used to estimate the severity of damage to buildings. Here, we are using a dataset based on emergency post-seismic assessments made after the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, third-party estimations of macroseismic intensity for this seismic event, shake maps, and scenario damage calculations to compare estimations under different modelling assumptions. First we select a rupture model using estimations of ground motion intensity measures and macroseismic intensity. Subsequently, we use scenario damage calculations based on different exposure models, including the aggregated exposure model in the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), as well as different site models. Moreover, a building-by-building exposure model is used in scenario calculations, which individually models the buildings in the dataset. Lastly, we compare the results of a semi-empirical approach to the estimations made with the scenario calculations. The post-seismic assessments are converted to EMS-98 (Grünthal, 1998) damage grades and then used to estimate the damage for the entirety of the building stock in Le Teil. In general, the scenario calculations estimate lower probabilities for damage grades 3-4 than the estimations made using the emergency post-seismic assessments. An exposure and fragility model assembled herein leads to probabilities for damage grades 3-5 with small differences from the probabilities based on the ESRM20 exposure and fragility model, while the semi-empirical approach leads to lower probabilities. The comparisons in this paper also help us learn lessons on how to improve future testing. An improvement would be the use of damage observations collected directly on the EMS-98 scale or on the damage scale in ESRM20. Advances in testing may also be made by employing methods that inform us about the damage at the scale of a city, such as remote sensing or data-driven learning methods fed by a large number of low-cost seismological instruments spread over the building stock.
  • Brief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm Alex
    Item type: Journal Article
    Chmiel, Malgorzata; Godano, Maxime; Piantini, Marco; et al. (2022)
    Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
    On 2 October 2020, the Maritime Alps in southern France were struck by the devastating Storm Alex, which caused locally more than 600 mm of rain in less than 24 h. The extreme rainfall and flooding destroyed regional rain and stream gauges. That hinders our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of rainfall-runoff processes during the storm. Here, we show that seismological observations from permanent seismic stations constrain these processes at a catchment scale. The analysis of seismic power, peak frequency, and the back azimuth provides us with the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves associated with bedload-dominated phases of the flood on the Vesubie River. Moreover, the combined short-term average to long-term average ratio and template-matching earthquake detection reveal that 114 local earthquakes between local magnitude M-L = -0.5 and M-L = 2 were triggered by the hydrological loading and/or the resulting in situ underground pore pressure increase. This study shows the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth's surface and deep-layer processes and paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of these processes.
Publications 1 - 5 of 5