Journal: Global Change Biology

Abbreviation

Glob. Chang. Biol.

Publisher

Wiley

Journal Volumes

ISSN

1354-1013
1365-2486

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Filters

2017 - 2019102020 - 202569
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Publications 1 - 10 of 79
  • Resilience of seed production to a severe El Niño‐induced drought across functional groups and dispersal types
    Item type: Journal Article
    O'Brien, Michael John; Perez-Aviles, Daniel; Powers, Jennifer S. (2018)
    Global Change Biology
  • The Greatest Extinction Event in 66 Million Years? Contextualising Anthropogenic Extinctions
    Item type: Review Article
    Hatfield, Jack H.; Allen, Bethany; Carroll, Tadhg; et al. (2025)
    Global Change Biology
    Biological communities are changing rapidly in response to human activities, with the high rate of vertebrate species extinction leading many to propose that we are in the midst of a sixth mass extinction event. Five past mass extinction events have commonly been identified across the Phanerozoic, with the last occurring at the end of the Cretaceous, 66 million years ago (Ma). However, life on Earth has always changed and evolved, with most species ever to have existed now extinct. The question is, are human activities increasing the rate and magnitude of extinction to levels rarely seen in the history of life? Drawing on the literature on extinctions primarily over the last 66 million years (i.e., the Cenozoic), we ask: (1) what comparisons can meaningfully be drawn? and (2) when did the Earth last witness an extinction event on this scale? We conclude that, although challenging to address, the available evidence suggests that the ongoing extinction episode still falls a long way short of the devastation caused by the bolide impact 66 Ma, but that it has likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events in magnitude, with the possible exception of the Eocene–Oligocene transition (34 Ma), about which much uncertainty remains. Given the number of endangered and at-risk species, the eventual magnitude of the current event will depend heavily on humanity's response and how we interact with the rest of the biosphere over the coming millennia.
  • Warm-Loving Species Perform Well Under Limiting Resources: Trait Combinations for Future Climate
    Item type: Journal Article
    Levasseur , Sarah; de Melo , Vanessa; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; et al. (2025)
    Global Change Biology
    Ecosystems are warming alongside shifts in other abiotic factors, leading to interactive effects on populations and communities. This underscores the importance of studying how organisms respond to multiple environmental changes simultaneously. In pelagic ecosystems, as surface waters warm, longer and stronger periods of thermal stratification lead to changes in resource (light and nutrient) availability. We investigate the combined effects of temperature and resource availability on the growth rates of 19 populations (comprising 17 species) of freshwater phytoplankton in order to examine how temperature influences the minimum resource requirements (and Monod parameters) for light, nitrogen, and phosphorus. We also evaluate how resource availability affects each population's thermal traits (i.e., thermal performance curve - TPC - parameters). When averaged across all populations, the requirements for light and phosphorus tended to display a U-shaped relationship along temperatures. Individual populations varied greatly in their responses to temperature, leading to shifts in the identity of the best competitor across the thermal gradient, particularly for nitrogen and phosphorus. TPC responses to resource limitation were highly variable, but thermal optima and maxima of individual populations often decreased with resource limitation, and thermal breadths (range where growth is 80% or more of its maximum) often increased due to a flattening of TPCs. Across all populations and resource types, the maximum optimum temperature across resource levels (maximum Topt) tended to be positively correlated with the temperature at which populations had the lowest resource requirements (minimum R*). However, the temperature at which populations were the best competitors tended to be ~5°C colder on average than the temperature at which they grew the fastest. The populations with the highest thermal optima also had the lowest minimum resource requirements. Our findings reveal trait associations suggesting that some taxa already exhibit trait combinations that would support high performance under future warm and resource-limited conditions.
  • Evaluating Ecological Restoration Through Natural Regeneration Requires Replicated Landscape-Scale Monitoring Studies
    Item type: Other Journal Item
    van Breugel, Michiel; Rodriguez-Ronderos, Maria Elizabeth; Hall, Jefferson S.; et al. (2025)
    Global Change Biology
  • Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate
    Item type: Journal Article
    Swain, Daniel L.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Albano, Christine M.; et al. (2025)
    Global Change Biology
  • High temperatures enhance the microbial genetic potential to recycle C and N from necromass in high‐mountain soils
    Item type: Journal Article
    Donhauser, Johanna; Qi, Weihong; Bergk-Pinto, Benoît; et al. (2021)
    Global Change Biology
    Climate change is strongly affecting high‐mountain soils and warming in particular is associated with pronounced changes in microbe‐mediated C and N cycling, affecting plant‐soil interactions and greenhouse gas balances and therefore feedbacks to global warming. We used shotgun metagenomics to assess changes in microbial community structures, as well as changes in microbial C‐ and N‐cycling potential and stress response genes and we linked these data with changes in soil C and N pools and temperature‐dependent measurements of bacterial growth rates. We did so by incubating high‐elevation soil from the Swiss Alps at 4°C, 15°C, 25°C, or 35°C for 1 month. We found no shift with increasing temperature in the C‐substrate‐degrader community towards taxa more capable of degrading recalcitrant organic matter. Conversely, at 35°C, we found an increase in genes associated with the degradation and modification of microbial cell walls, together with high bacterial growth rates. Together, these findings suggest that the rapidly growing high‐temperature community is fueled by necromass from heat‐sensitive taxa. This interpretation was further supported by a shift in the microbial N‐cycling potential towards N mineralization and assimilation under higher temperatures, along with reduced potential for conversions among inorganic N forms. Microbial stress‐response genes reacted inconsistently to increasing temperature, suggesting that the high‐temperature community was not severely stressed by these conditions. Rather, soil microbes were able to acclimate by changing the thermal properties of membranes and cell walls as indicated by an increase in genes involved in membrane and cell wall modifications as well as a shift in the optimum temperature for bacterial growth towards the treatment temperature. Overall, our results suggest that high temperatures, as they may occur with heat waves under global warming, promote a highly active microbial community capable of rapid mineralization of microbial necromass, which may transiently amplify warming effects.
  • Fungal community structure and function shifts with atmospheric nitrogen deposition
    Item type: Journal Article
    Moore, Jessica A. M.; Anthony, Mark A.; Pec, Gregory J.; et al. (2021)
    Global Change Biology
    Fungal decomposition of soil organic matter depends on soil nitrogen (N) availability. This ecosystem process is being jeopardized by changes in N inputs that have resulted from a tripling of atmospheric N deposition in the last century. Soil fungi are impacted by atmospheric N deposition due to higher N availability, as soils are acidified, or as micronutrients become increasingly limiting. Fungal communities that persist with chronic N deposition may be enriched with traits that enable them to tolerate environmental stress, which may trade-off with traits enabling organic matter decomposition. We hypothesized that fungal communities would respond to N deposition by shifting community composition and functional gene abundances toward those that tolerate stress but are weak decomposers. We sampled soils at seven eastern US hardwood forests where ambient N deposition varied from 3.2 to 12.6 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), five of which also have experimental plots where atmospheric N deposition was simulated through fertilizer application treatments (25-50 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). Fungal community and functional responses to fertilizer varied across the ambient N deposition gradient. Fungal biomass and richness increased with simulated N deposition at sites with low ambient deposition and decreased at sites with high ambient deposition. Fungal functional genes involved in hydrolysis of organic matter increased with ambient N deposition while genes involved in oxidation of organic matter decreased. One of four genes involved in generalized abiotic stress tolerance increased with ambient N deposition. In summary, we found that the divergent response to simulated N deposition depended on ambient N deposition levels. Fungal biomass, richness, and oxidative enzyme potential were reduced by N deposition where ambient N deposition was high suggesting fungal communities were pushed beyond an environmental stress threshold. Fungal community structure and function responses to N enrichment depended on ambient N deposition at a regional scale.
  • Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database
    Item type: Journal Article
    Niu, Mutian; Kebreab, Ermias; Hristov, Alexander N.; et al. (2018)
    Global Change Biology
    Enteric methane (CH4) production from cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Measurement of enteric CH4 is complex, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are commonly used to predict CH4 production. However, building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH4 production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH4 production (g/day per cow), yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)], and intensity (g/kg energy corrected milk) and their respective relationships; (3) develop intercontinental and regional models and cross‐validate their performance; and (4) assess the trade‐off between availability of on‐farm inputs and CH4 prediction accuracy. The intercontinental database covered Europe (EU), the United States (US), and Australia (AU). A sequential approach was taken by incrementally adding key variables to develop models with increasing complexity. Methane emissions were predicted by fitting linear mixed models. Within model categories, an intercontinental model with the most available independent variables performed best with root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) as a percentage of mean observed value of 16.6%, 14.7%, and 19.8% for intercontinental, EU, and United States regions, respectively. Less complex models requiring only DMI had predictive ability comparable to complex models. Enteric CH4 production, yield, and intensity prediction models developed on an intercontinental basis had similar performance across regions, however, intercepts and slopes were different with implications for prediction. Revised CH4 emission conversion factors for specific regions are required to improve CH4 production estimates in national inventories. In conclusion, information on DMI is required for good prediction, and other factors such as dietary neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentration, improve the prediction. For enteric CH4 yield and intensity prediction, information on milk yield and composition is required for better estimation.
  • Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?
    Item type: Journal Article
    Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Zscheischler, Jakob; et al. (2020)
    Global Change Biology
  • Annual precipitation explains variability in dryland vegetation greenness globally but not locally
    Item type: Journal Article
    Ukkola, Anna M.; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Roderick, Michael L.; et al. (2021)
    Global Change Biology
    Dryland vegetation productivity is strongly modulated by water availability. As precipitation patterns and variability are altered by climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand vegetation responses to precipitation variability in these ecologically fragile regions. Here we present a global analysis of dryland sensitivity to annual precipitation variations using long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We show that while precipitation explains 66% of spatial gradients in NDVI across dryland regions, precipitation only accounts for <26% of temporal NDVI variability over most (>75%) dryland regions. We observed this weaker temporal relative to spatial relationship between NDVI and precipitation across all global drylands. We confirmed this result using three alternative water availability metrics that account for water loss to evaporation, and growing season and precipitation timing. This suggests that predicting vegetation responses to future rainfall using space-for-time substitution will strongly overestimate precipitation control on interannual variability in aboveground growth. We explore multiple mechanisms to explain the discrepancy between spatial and temporal responses and find contributions from multiple factors including local-scale vegetation characteristics, climate and soil properties. Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project overestimate the observed vegetation sensitivity to precipitation variability up to threefold, particularly during dry years. Given projections of increasing meteorological drought, ESMs are likely to overestimate the impacts of future drought on dryland vegetation with observations suggesting that dryland vegetation is more resistant to annual precipitation variations than ESMs project.
Publications 1 - 10 of 79