Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Abbreviation

Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change

Publisher

Elsevier

Journal Volumes

ISSN

0040-1625

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Publications1 - 10 of 38
  • Technology users and standardization: Game changing strategies in the field of smart meter technology
    Item type: Journal Article
    Markard, Jochen; Erlinghagen, Sabine (2017)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • The role of inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers in technological innovations: The case of lithium-ion batteries
    Item type: Journal Article
    Stephan, Annegret; Bening, Catharina R.; Schmidt, Tobias; et al. (2019)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    Innovation is critical for economic growth and addressing societal and environmental problems. Therefore, many policy interventions aim to accelerate and redirect technological change. Most modern technologies have value chains spanning multiple sectors, and thus are likely to require cross-sectoral knowledge spillovers. However, knowledge spillovers between sectors in a technology's value chain have hardly been analyzed. We analyze the role of the sectoral diversity and sectoral distance of knowledge for subsequent knowledge generation within one specific technology. More specifically, we investigate how the sectoral diversity and distance of prior knowledge affect the technological importance, sectoral diversity, and sectoral distance of subsequent knowledge. Our regression analyses of global patent data of lithium-ion batteries show that (1) higher sectoral diversity increases the importance of newly created knowledge, whereas higher sectoral distance does not significantly increase the importance of newly created knowledge; (2) both higher sectoral diversity and distance of prior knowledge increase the sectoral diversity of subsequent knowledge; and (3) higher sectoral distance of prior knowledge increases the sectoral distance of subsequent knowledge, whereas higher sectoral diversity of prior knowledge does not significantly increase the distance of subsequent knowledge. We discuss our findings and derive implications for research, R&D managers and policymakers.
  • Identifying urban transformation dynamics: Functional use of scenario techniques to integrate knowledge from science and practice
    Item type: Journal Article
    von Wirth, Timo; Wissen Hayek, Ulrike; Kunze, Antje; et al. (2014)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy
    Item type: Journal Article
    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; et al. (2015)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners to compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, climate targets are relaxed, and although staged accession can achieve significant reductions of global warming, the resulting climate outcome is unlikely to be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees. The addition of China to the front runner coalition can reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20–30%, increasing the likelihood of staying below 2 degrees. Not accounting for potential co-benefits, the cost of front runner action is found to be lower for the EU than for China. Regions that delay their accession to the climate regime face a trade-off between reduced short term costs and higher transitional requirements due to larger carbon lock-ins and more rapidly increasing carbon prices during the accession period.
  • Riding the Wave of Crypto-Exuberance: The Potential Misusage of Corporate Blockchain Announcements
    Item type: Journal Article
    Akyildirim, Erdinç; Corbet, Shaen; Cumming, Douglas; et al. (2020)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    Cryptocurrencies have been broadly scrutinised in recent times for a host of concerning regulatory and cybercriminality issues. Although steps have been taken to promote regulatory sufficiency in the near future, we examine the avenues through which this extremely high-risk industry can derive potentially devastating contagion channels, influencing both unwilling and unsuspecting investors. We focus this research on the expressions of interest by publicly traded companies across the world to utilise cryptocurrency and blockchain projects. We find evidence that there exists a substantial stock price premium and sustained increase in volatility in the aftermath of blockchain announcements, with emphasis on highly-speculative motives such as coin creation and corporate name changes. Changes in price discovery and information flows are found to be largely determined from cryptocurrency-based pricing sources in the aftermath of speculative announcements. We discuss the inherent ethical and legal issues, considering as to whether such announcements are simply an attempt to artificially manipulate share prices and take part in the current phase of crypto-exuberance.
  • Analyzing and improving the national innovation system of highly developed countries
    Item type: Journal Article
    Marxt, Christian; Brunner, Claudia (2013)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • The private returns to knowledge: A comparison of ICT, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, and green technologies
    Item type: Journal Article
    Stucki, Tobias; Woerter, Martin (2019)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • How deployment policies affect innovation in complementary technologies-evidence from the German energy transition
    Item type: Journal Article
    Sinsel, Simon R.; Markard, Jochen; Hoffmann, Volker H. (2020)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    The transition in the electricity sector has entered a new phase, in which the complementary interplay of different technologies is key for the future functioning of the sector. A key question in this regard is how deployment policies for clean technologies such as wind and solar PV affect innovation in complementary technologies such as battery storage. We present a qualitative study from the German power sector, in which we investigate the impact of the feed-in tariff for renewable energy generation, on two complementary technologies: consumer and grid connected battery systems. We find direct and indirect effects of the feed-in tariff. Indirect effects are primarily about positive expectations regarding the future progression of the transition. As deployment policies drive this progression, providers of complementary technologies interpret these changes as promising signals for their business. Direct effects differ for consumer and grid connected batteries. We find that innovation in consumer battery systems is disincentivized by some deployment policy features, while there are no such effects for grid connected batteries. When re-designing deployment policies for the next stage of the energy transition, it is important to take their effects on complementary technologies into account, or to develop specific policies targeting complementary innovation. © 2020 Elsevier Inc.
  • Transdisciplinary knowledge integration – PART I: Theoretical foundations and an organizational structure
    Item type: Journal Article
    Scholz, Roland W.; Zscheischler, Jana; Köckler, Heike; et al. (2024)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    Transdisciplinary processes deal with transdisciplinary problems that are (i) complex, (ii) societally relevant, (iii) ill-defined, and (iv) real-world problems which often show a high degree of ambiguity resulting in contested perceptions and evaluations among and between scientists and practitioners. Therefore, they are susceptible to multiple trade-offs. Transdisciplinary processes construct socially robust orientations (SoROs) particularly for sustainable transitioning. The integration of science and practice knowledge on equal footing (1) is considered the core of transdisciplinary processes. Yet other forms of knowledge integration contribute essentially to construct SoROs. Individuals may (2) use different modes of thought; (3) refer to various cultures with diverse value and belief systems; and (4) problems are perceived and prioritized based on roles and interests. Coping with transdisciplinary problems, (5) purposeful differentiation and integration and (6) an integration of evolutionary evolving codes of representing knowledge are necessary. Finally, (7) what systems to integrate requires consensus-building among participating scientists and practitioners. This paper is Part I of a two-part publication. It provides a conceptualization of the different types of knowledge integration. Part II analyzes tasks, challenges, and barriers related to different types of knowledge integration in five transdisciplinary processes which developed SoROs for sensitive subsystems of Germany affected by the irresponsible use of digital data.
  • A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models
    Item type: Journal Article
    Li, Francis G.N.; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Strachan, Neil (2015)
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Publications1 - 10 of 38