Journal: CEPE Working Paper

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ETH Zurich, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics

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2000 - 2009542010 - 201213
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Publications 1 - 10 of 67
  • Ex-Post-Analyse des Energieverbrauchs in den Sektoren Dienstleistungen und Landwirtschaft 2000 bis 2007 nach Bestimmungsfaktoren
    Item type: Working Paper
    Aebischer, Bernard; Catenazzi, Giacomo (2009)
    CEPE Working Paper
  • A model of West African Millet prices in rural markets
    Item type: Working Paper
    Brown, Molly; Higgins, Nathaniel; Hintermann, Beat (2009)
    CEPE Working Paper
    In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4-month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.
  • Energie, Umwelt und die 2000 Watt Gesellschaft
    Item type: Working Paper
    Spreng, Daniel T.; Semadeni, Marco (2001)
    CEPE Working Paper
  • Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: A robust distributional approach
    Item type: Working Paper
    Ordás Criado, Carlos; Grether, Jean-Marie (2010)
    CEPE Working Paper
    This paper investigates the convergence hypothesis for per capita CO2 emissions with a panel of 166 world areas covering the period 1960-2002. The analysis is based on the evolution of the spatial distributions over time. Robust measures of dispersion, asymmetry, peakedness and two nonparametric distributional tests - shape equality and multimodality - are used to assess spatial time differences. A robust normal reference bandwidth is also applied to estimate Markov’s transition laws and its subsequent ergodic (long-run) distributions. Our results point toward non-stationary, flattening and rightskewed spatial distributions before the oil price shocks of the 1970s and more stable shapes between 1980 and 2000 at the world level and for many country groupings (similar income, geographic neighbors, institutional partners). In the latter period, group-specific convergence patterns emerge with the clearest single-peaked and compact density shapes being reached in the wealthy, well-integrated and European countries during the last years of the panel. No significant multimodality is formally detected in the world distribution over the whole period. The Markov analysis suggests more divergence and larger per capita emissions for the world before stabilization occurs. A variety of steady state distributions are identified in the country subsets.
  • Modeling Technology Adoption as an Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: The Case of the Turkish Electricity Supply Industry
    Item type: Working Paper
    Madlener, Reinhard; Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan; Ediger, Volkan (2004)
    CEPE Working Paper
    This paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty, and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability. We develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies (e.g. life-cycle capital and operation cost) explicitly into account. Uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak-load capacity, unit generation costs, and for the average electricity price. We test the model empirically by applying it to data for the Turkish power supply industry. The model-guided optimal investment results based on net present value considerations exhibit significant deviations from the actual investment outcome. We find that the increased adoption of natural-gas-fired power generation technologies in Turkey in recent years, while contributing to environmental sustainability, has had doubtful merits from an investor’s perspective.
  • An Options Pricing Approach for CO2 Allowances in the EU ETS
    Item type: Working Paper
    Hintermann, Beat (2009)
    CEPE Working Paper
    If firms are unable to fully control their emissions, the cap in a permit market may be exceeded. Using stochastic aggregate emissions as the underlying I derive an options pricing formula that expresses the permit price as a function of the penalty for noncompliance and the probability of a binding cap. I apply my model to the EU ETS, where rapid market setup made it difficult for firms to adjust their production technology in time for phase 1. The model fits the data well, implying that the permit price was driven by firms hedging against stochastic emissions rather than marginal abatement costs.
  • Valuing local environmental amenity
    Item type: Working Paper
    Lanz, Bruno; Provins, Allan (2011)
    CEPE Working Paper
    We report results from a series of discrete choice experiments designed to elicit preferences for local environmental improvements. Amenities we consider are: improvements to areas of open space, outdoor recreation facilities, street cleanliness, public areas, the restoration of derelict properties, and the provision of paths dedicated to cycling and walking. We include the spatial coverage of the policy as an attribute, making the trade-off between the location of improvements and environmental amenities explicit. We find that subjects derive significant benefits from improvements to their immediate neighborhood, and that the spatial scope of the policy affects both the intensity and heterogeneity of preferences. A fraction of subjects display negative surplus for improvements in more distant agglomerations. From a resource allocation perspective, this suggests that investments in local environmental infrastructure of nearby neighborhoods are substitutes, whereas investments in more distant areas are complements.
  • Regional disparities in electrification of India - do geographic factors matter?
    Item type: Working Paper
    Kemmler, Andreas (2006)
    CEPE Working Paper
    Modern energy sources are important input factors for human development. Although official estimates indicate that 85% of Indian villages are electrified, fewer than 60% of Indian households actually consume electricity. Therefore, one observes a considerable spatial heterogeneity in electrification rate. This paper examines the factors that influence household and village electrification, with particular attention given to the influence of geographic factors. The analysis shows that village electrification is constrained by state area and village structure. In addition, a high share of agricultural areas seems to have a positive effect. Household electrification depends on household characteristics, the degree of community electrification, and the quality of electricity supply, and it is independent of geographic factors. Surprisingly, household expenditure and, in particular, the electricity tariff show only a relatively small effect on a household‘s choice for electricity.
  • Elasticities of the electricity demand in urban indian households
    Item type: Working Paper
    Filippini, Massimo; Pachauri, Shonali (2002)
    CEPE Working Paper
    Energy demand, and in particular electricity demand in India has been growing at a very rapid rate over the last decade. Given, current trends in population growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, modernisation and income growth, electricity consumption is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as well. Tariff reforms could play a potentially important role as a demand side management tool in India. However, the effects of any price revisions on consumption will depend on the price elasticity of demand for electricity. In the past, electricity demand studies for India published in international journals have been based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub-national/ state level. In this paper, price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of India are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for over thirty thousand households. Three electricity demand functions have been estimated using monthly data for the following seasons: winter, monsoon and summer. The results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons, and that household, demographic and geographical variables are important in determining electricity demand, something that is not possible to determine using aggregate macro models alone.
  • A Benchmarking analysis of electricity distribution utilities in Switzerland
    Item type: Working Paper
    Farsi, Mehdi; Filippini, Massimo (2005)
    CEPE Working Paper
    This paper studies the sensitivity problems of the benchmarking methods used in the regulation practice. Three commonly used methods have been applied to a sample of 52 electricity distribution utilities to estimate their cost efficiency. These methods include stochastic frontier, corrected ordinary least squares and data envelopment analysis. The results indicate that both efficiency scores and ranks are significantly different across various models. Especially considerable differences exist between parametric and non-parametric methods.
Publications 1 - 10 of 67