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Journal: Regional Environmental Change

Abbreviation

Reg Environ Change

Publisher

Springer

Journal Volumes

ISSN

1436-3798
1436-378X

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Publications 1 - 10 of 50
  • The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland
    Item type: Journal Article
    Manusch, Corina; Bugmann, Harald; Wolf, Annett (2014)
    Regional Environmental Change
    Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.
  • Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
    Item type: Journal Article
    Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.; Pirttioja, Nina; et al. (2019)
    Regional Environmental Change
    Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.
  • Special Issue: Models for adaptive forest management - The MOTIVE project
    Item type: Journal Issue
    Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Bugmann, Harald; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; et al. (2015)
    Regional Environmental Change
  • Mapping uncertainties in the future provision of ecosystem services in a mountain region in Switzerland
    Item type: Journal Article
    Brunner, Sibyl Hanna; Huber, Robert; Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne (2017)
    Regional Environmental Change
    Ecosystem services (ES) management has to cope with a high degree of uncertainty related to changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions as well as in societal values. Information regarding the quantity and location of these uncertainties can facilitate identifying which areas require management attention and policy support. In this context, science for mapping ES is evolving rapidly, but there remains a lack of quantitative methods to integrate and visualize uncertainties related to regional and global changes that affect both ES supply and demand. Using a mountain case study in Switzerland, this paper quantifies and maps the uncertainty of future ES provision related to changes in regional and global socio-economic and climatic drivers as well as in ES preferences. We model and map patterns of (dis)agreements regarding ES in a multitude of scenarios and evaluate the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in these patterns. The results illuminate which drivers cause the highest levels of uncertainty in future ES provision and highlight areas where changes in ES are similar across scenarios or where changes are dependent on regional or global contexts. In this case study, changes in ES occur more consistently in remote areas, while in the main valley such changes are highly uncertain and particularly sensitive to national socio-economic drivers and climate change. The uncertainty maps can serve as a basis for discussing regional development plans and national policy strategies. The suggested approach could serve as a straightforward means to quantify and communicate spatial uncertainties in future ES studies.
  • Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region
    Item type: Journal Article
    Nishizawa, Takamasa; Kay, Sonja; Schuler, Johannes; et al. (2023)
    Regional Environmental Change
    Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.
  • Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy makers
    Item type: Journal Article
    Hanger, Susanne; Pfinninger, StefanPfeninnger, Stefan; Dreyfus, Magali; et al. (2013)
    Regional Environmental Change
  • Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains
    Item type: Journal Article
    Zlatanov, Tzvetan; Elkin, Ché; Irauschek, Florian; et al. (2017)
    Regional Environmental Change
  • Assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission profiles of livestock sectors in Africa, Latin America and Europe
    Item type: Journal Article
    Zhu, Biqing; Kros, Johannes; Lesschen, Jan P.; et al. (2016)
    Regional Environmental Change
  • The landscape-level effect of individual-owner adaptation to climate change in Dutch forests
    Item type: Journal Article
    Hengeveld, Geerten M.; Didion, Markus; Clerkx, Sandra; et al. (2015)
    Regional Environmental Change
  • Correction to: Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio‑ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region ( vol 23 , 97 , 2023)
    Item type: Other Journal Item
    Nishizawa, Takamasa; Kay, Sonja; Schuler, Johannes; et al. (2023)
    Regional Environmental Change
Publications 1 - 10 of 50