Communications Earth & Environment

Journal: Communications Earth & Environment

Abbreviation

Commun Earth Environ

Publisher

Springer

ISSN

2662-4435

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Publications 1 - 10 of 29

A data-driven approach to rapidly estimate recovery potential to go beyond building damage after disasters
Loos, Sabine; Lallemant, David; Khan, Feroz; et al. (2023)
Communications Earth & Environment
Following a disaster, crucial decisions about recovery resources often prioritize immediate damage, partly due to a lack of detailed information on who will struggle to recover in the long term. Here, we develop a data-driven approach to provide rapid estimates of non-recovery, or areas with the potential to fall behind during recovery, by relating surveyed data on recovery progress with data that would be readily available in most countries. We demonstrate this approach for one dimension of recovery—housing reconstruction—analyzing data collected five years after the 2015 Nepal earthquake to identify a range of ongoing social and environmental vulnerabilities related to non-recovery in Nepal. If such information were available in 2015, it would have exposed regional differences in recovery potential due to these vulnerabilities. More generally, moving beyond damage data by estimating non-recovery focuses attention on those most vulnerable sooner after a disaster to better support holistic and nuanced decisions.
Atmospheric radiocarbon levels were highly variable during the last deglaciation
Talamo, Sahra; Friedrich, Michael; Adolphi, Florian; et al. (2023)
Communications Earth & Environment
Radiocarbon dating provides a key chronological framework for studying past environmental changes. Raw radiocarbon ages measured in samples must be converted to calendar ages using an appropriate calibration curve. Tree-ring datasets provide the gold-standard for developing a precise curve of atmospheric radiocarbon levels over long-time scales. Here, we reconstruct atmospheric radiocarbon levels using a millennium-long section of tree-ring chronology segments that extend into the last glacial period. The samples were obtained from subfossil larch trees recovered from clay quarries at Revine, Italy. Our reconstruction shows higher variations in the amplitude of atmospheric radiocarbon between 18,475 and 17,350 calendar years before the present than that detected in the IntCal20 calibration curve. Comparing the new tree-ring based reconstruction with Beryllium-10 fluxes derived from ice cores, we hypothesise that these variations are driven by solar variability. Our results demonstrate the unique value of sub-decadal radiocarbon sequences derived from glacial tree-ring chronologies.
Swiss agriculture can become more sustainable and self-sufficient by shifting from forage to grain legume production
Keller, Beat; Oppliger, Corina; Chassot, Mirjam; et al. (2024)
Communications Earth & Environment
Switzerland’s livestock production causes high environmental costs and depends strongly on feed imports. While plant-based protein demand increases, the local grain legume production is negligible (~ 9000 hectares). Here, we investigated the potential of sustainable legume protein production based on an expert survey followed by a quantitative analysis based on yield, soil, terrain and climate data. Pea, soybean and faba bean showed high potential for Swiss agriculture given adaptions in policy, pricing and breeding. The potential grain legume production area was 107,734 hectares on suitable arable land (Scenario I). Switzerland’s self-sufficiency could be increased by cutting imports and maximizing legume production on 181,479 hectares (Scenario II) in expense of grassland and fodder maize. This would replace approximately 41% of animal protein consumption with plant-based protein, preserving 32% of milk and 24% of meat protein. In conclusion, domestic legume production could be substantially increased while improving human and environmental health.
Large-scale dynamics moderate impact-relevant changes to organised convective storms
Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Fowler, Hayley J.; et al. (2023)
Communications Earth & Environment
Larger organised convective storms (mesoscale-convective systems) can lead to major flood events in Europe. Here we assess end-of-century changes to their characteristics in two convection-permitting climate simulations from the UK Met Office and ETH-Zürich that both use the high Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario but different approaches to represent atmospheric changes with global warming and different models. The UK Met Office projections indicate more frequent, smaller, and slower-moving storms, while ETH-Zürich projections show fewer, larger, and faster-moving storms. However, both simulations show increases to peak precipitation intensity, total precipitation volume, and temporal clustering, suggesting increasing risks from mesoscale-convective systems in the future. Importantly, the largest storms that pose increased flood risks are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. These results highlight that understanding large-scale dynamical drivers as well as the thermodynamical response of storms is essential for accurate projections of changes to storm hazards, needed for future climate adaptation.
Active microbial sulfate reduction in fluids of serpentinizing peridotites of the continental subsurface
Glombitza, Clemens; Putman, Lindsay I.; Rempfert, Kaitlin R.; et al. (2021)
Communications Earth & Environment
Serpentinization of peridotites in Earth’s mantle is associated with the generation of hydrogen and low molecular weight organics that could support subsurface life. Studies of microbial metabolisms in peridotite-hosted environments have focused primarily on methanogenesis, yet DNA sequences, isotopic composition of sulfides and thermodynamic calculations suggest there is potential for microbial sulfate reduction too. Here, we use a sulfate radiotracer-based method to quantify microbial sulfate reduction rates in serpentinization fluids recovered from boreholes in the Samail Ophiolite, Oman and the California Coast Range Ophiolite, USA. We find that low levels of sulfate reduction occur at pH up to 12.3. These low levels could not be stimulated by addition of hydrogen, methane or small organic acids, which indicates that this metabolism is limited by factors other than substrate availability. Cellular activity drops at pH > 10.5 which suggests that high fluid pH exerts a strong control on sulfate-reducing organisms in peridotites.
An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
Matthews, H. Damon; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Rogelj, Joeri; et al. (2021)
Communications Earth & Environment
The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century
Messmer, Martina; Eckert, Sandra; Torre-Marin Rando, Amor; et al. (2024)
Communications Earth & Environment
Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. Here we combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region’s complex climate, its variability and future changes. We show that the co-occurrence of the analysed grass species is reduced in large parts of eastern Africa, and particularly in the Turkana region, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the last 30 years of the 21st century. Our results suggest that future climate change will alter the natural resource base, with potentially negative impacts on pastoralism and wildlife in East Africa.
Extraordinary human energy consumption and resultant geological impacts beginning around 1950 CE initiated the proposed Anthropocene Epoch
Syvitski, Jaia; Waters, Colin N.; Day, John; et al. (2020)
Communications Earth & Environment
Growth in fundamental drivers—energy use, economic productivity and population—can provide quantitative indications of the proposed boundary between the Holocene Epoch and the Anthropocene. Human energy expenditure in the Anthropocene, ~22 zetajoules (ZJ), exceeds that across the prior 11,700 years of the Holocene (~14.6 ZJ), largely through combustion of fossil fuels. The global warming effect during the Anthropocene is more than an order of magnitude greater still. Global human population, their productivity and energy consumption, and most changes impacting the global environment, are highly correlated. This extraordinary outburst of consumption and productivity demonstrates how the Earth System has departed from its Holocene state since ~1950 CE, forcing abrupt physical, chemical and biological changes to the Earth’s stratigraphic record that can be used to justify the proposal for naming a new epoch—the Anthropocene.
Continuous increase in evaporative demand shortened the growing season of European ecosystems in the last decade
Rahmati, Mehdi; Graf, Alexander; Poppe Terán, Christian; et al. (2023)
Communications Earth & Environment
Despite previous reports on European growing seasons lengthening due to global warming, evidence shows that this trend has been reversing in the past decade due to increased transpiration needs. To asses this, we used an innovative method along with space-based observations to determine the timing of greening and dormancy and then to determine existing trends of them and causes. Early greening still occurs, albeit at slower rates than before. However, a recent (2011–2020) shift in the timing of dormancy has caused the season length to decrease back to 1980s levels. This shortening of season length is attributed primarily to higher atmospheric water demand in summer that suppresses transpiration even for soil moisture levels as of previous years. Transpiration suppression implies that vegetation is unable to meet the high transpiration needs. Our results have implications for future management of European ecosystems (e.g., net carbon balance and water and energy exchange with atmosphere) in a warmer world.
Mechanics of coseismic and postseismic acceleration of active landslides
Kohler, Marc; Puzrin, Alexander (2023)
Communications Earth & Environment
Active slow-moving landslides exhibit very different coseismic and postseismic behaviour. Whereas some landslides do not show any postseismic acceleration, there are many that experience an increased motion in the days to weeks following an earthquake. The reason for this behaviour remains debated and the underlying mechanisms are only partially understood. In recent years, it has been suggested that postseismic acceleration is caused by excess pore water pressures generated outside of the shear zone during seismic shaking, with their subsequent diffusion into the shear zone. Here we show that this hypothesis is indeed plausible and hydro-mechanically consistent by using a basic rate-dependent physical landslide model. Our simulations provide insight into the landslide behaviour in response to seismic shaking and its main controlling parameters: preseismic landslide velocity, rate-dependency of soil strength in the shear zone, hydro-mechanical characteristics of the adjacent soil layers and the earthquake intensity.

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