The Cryosphere

Journal: The Cryosphere

Publisher

Copernicus

ISSN

1994-0416
1994-0424

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Publications1 - 10 of 144

Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations
Zekollari, Harry; Huss, Matthias; Schuster, Lilian; et al. (2024)
The Cryosphere
Projecting the global evolution of glaciers is crucial to quantify future sea-level rise and changes in glacier-fed rivers. Recent intercomparison efforts have shown that a large part of the uncertainties in the projected glacier evolution is driven by the glacier model itself and by the data used for initial conditions and calibration. Here, we quantify the effect that mass balance observations, one of the most crucial data sources used in glacier modelling, have on glacier projections. For this, we model the 21st century global glacier evolution under Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 project (CMIP6) climate scenarios with the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) calibrated to match glacier-specific mass balance observations, as opposed to relying on regional mass balance observations. We find that the differences in modelled 21st century glacier changes can be large at the scale of individual glaciers (up to several tens of percent), but tend to average out at regional to global scales (a few percent at most). Our study thus indicates that the added value of relying on glacier-specific observations is at the subregional and local scale, which will increasingly allow projecting the glacier-specific evolution and local impacts for every individual glacier on Earth. To increase the ensemble of models that project global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios, simulations are also performed with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). We project the 2015–2100 global glacier loss to vary between 25 ± 15 % (GloGEM) and 29 ± 14 % (OGGM) under SSP1-2.6 to 46 ± 26 % and 54 ± 29 % under SSP5-8.5 (ensemble median, with 95 % confidence interval; calibration with glacier-specific observations). Despite some differences at the regional scale and a slightly more pronounced sensitivity to changing climatic conditions, our results agree well with the recent projections by Rounce et al. (2023), thereby projecting, for any emission scenario, a higher 21st century mass loss than the current community estimate from the second phase of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project (GlacierMIP2).
Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pio XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield
Schwikowski, Margit; Schläppi, M.; Santibañez, P.; et al. (2013)
The Cryosphere
Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.
Coherent backscatter enhancement in bistatic Ku- and X-band radar observations of dry snow
Štefko, Marcel; Leinss, Silvan; Frey, Othmar; et al. (2022)
The Cryosphere
The coherent backscatter opposition effect (CBOE) enhances the backscatter intensity of electromagnetic waves by up to a factor of 2 in a very narrow cone around the direct return direction when multiple scattering occurs in a weakly absorbing, disordered medium. So far, this effect has not been investigated in terrestrial snow in the microwave spectrum. It has also received little attention in scattering models. We present the first characterization of the CBOE in dry snow using ground-based and spaceborne bistatic radar systems. For a seasonal snowpack in the Ku-band (17.2 GHz), we found backscatter enhancement of 50 %-60 % (+1.8-2.0 dB) at a zero bistatic angle and a peak half-width at half-maximum (HWHM) of 0.25 degrees. In the Xband (9.65 GHz), we found backscatter enhancement of at least 35 % (+1.3 dB) and an estimated HWHM of 0.12 degrees in the accumulation areas of glaciers in the Jungfrau-Aletsch region, Switzerland. Sampling of the peak shape at different bistatic angles allows estimating the scattering and absorption mean free paths, Lambda(T) and Lambda(A). In the VV polarization, we obtained Lambda(T) = 0.4 +/- 0.1 m and Lambda(A) = 19 +/- 12 m at the Ku-band and Lambda(T) = 2.1 +/- 0.4 m and Lambda(A) = 21.8 +/- 2.7 m at the X-band, assuming an optically thick medium. The HH polarization yielded similar results. The observed backscatter enhancement is thus significant enough to require consideration in backscatter models describing monostatic and bistatic radar experiments. Enhanced backscattering beyond the Earth, on the surface of solar system bodies, has been interpreted as being caused by the presence of water ice. In agreement with this interpretation, our results confirm the presence of the CBOE at X- and Ku-band frequencies in terrestrial snow.
The source, quantity, and spatial distribution of interfacial water during glide-snow avalanche release: experimental evidence from field monitoring
Fees, Amelie; Lombardo, Michael; van Herwijnen, Alec; et al. (2025)
The Cryosphere
Glide-snow avalanches release at the soil-snow interface due to a loss friction which is suspected to be linked to interfacial water. Presently, the formation and distribution of the interfacial water are not well understood and glide-snow avalanches are considered unpredictable. We investigated the source, quantity, and spatial distribution of interfacial water before and during avalanche release through spatio-temporal field monitoring. The measurement setup consists of a sensor grid covering a slope with frequent glide-snow avalanche activity. The 24 grid sensors measured the soil temperature and liquid water content (LWC) throughout seasons 2021/22 to 2023/24. Snow and interfacial temperature and LWC were monitored locally with a vertical sensor profile ranging from the soil into the snow. Seven glide-snow avalanches released over the sensor grid and their investigation showed the following: (i) interfacial water originated from geothermal heat, rain, and meltwater percolation; (ii) the quantity of snow LWC was lower for glide-snow avalanches that released in early winter than in spring; (iii) soil temperatures in the release area were higher than in the remaining slope if interfacial water originated from geothermal heat; (iv) if interfacial water originated from rain and/or melt, we observed (locally) higher soil LWC in the release area; and (v) for the majority of observed avalanches the spatial variability in soil LWC across the slope reached a local minimum at the time of avalanche release. In the future, with continued monitoring, the spatio-temporal investigation of the soil LWC and temperature will help to quantify the drivers of glide-snow avalanche release at the slope scale. This will contribute to improved glide-snow avalanche forecasting and mitigation.
A new model for estimating subsurface ice content based on combined electrical and seismic data sets
Hauck, Christian; Böttcher, M.; Maurer, Hansruedi (2011)
The Cryosphere
Detailed knowledge of the material properties and internal structures of frozen ground is one of the prerequisites in many permafrost studies. In the absence of direct evidence, such as in-situ borehole measurements, geophysical methods are an increasingly interesting option for obtaining subsurface information on various spatial and temporal scales. The indirect nature of geophysical soundings requires a relation between the measured variables (e.g. electrical resistivity, seismic velocity) and the actual subsurface constituents (rock, water, air, ice). In this work, we present a model which provides estimates of the volumetric fractions of these four constituents from tomographic electrical and seismic images. The model is tested using geophysical data sets from two rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, where ground truth information in form of borehole data is available. First results confirm the applicability of the so-called 4-phase model, which allows to quantify the contributions of ice-, water- and air within permafrost areas as well as detecting solid bedrock. Apart from a similarly thick active layer with enhanced air content for both rock glaciers, the two case studies revealed a heterogeneous distribution of ice and unfrozen water within Muragl rock glacier, where bedrock was detected at depths of 20–25 m, but a comparatively homogeneous ice body with only minor heterogeneities within Murtèl rock glacier.
Little Ice Age climate reconstruction from ensemble reanalysis of Alpine glacier fluctuations
Lüthi, Martin P. (2014)
The Cryosphere
Mountain glaciers sample a combination of climate fields – temperature, precipitation and radiation – by accumulation and melting of ice. Flow dynamics acts as a transfer function that maps volume changes to a length response of the glacier terminus. Long histories of terminus positions have been assembled for several glaciers in the Alps. Here I analyze terminus position histories from an ensemble of seven glaciers in the Alps with a macroscopic model of glacier dynamics to derive a history of glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for the time span 400–2010 C.E. The resulting climatic reconstruction depends only on records of glacier variations. The reconstructed ELA history is similar to recent reconstructions of Alpine summer temperature and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, but bears little resemblance to reconstructed precipitation variations. Most reconstructed low-ELA periods coincide with large explosive volcano eruptions, hinting at a direct effect of volcanic radiative cooling on mass balance. The glacier advances during the LIA, and the retreat after 1860, can thus be mainly attributed to temperature and volcanic radiative cooling.
Surface elevation and mass changes of all Swiss glaciers 1980–2010
Fischer, Mauro; Huss, Matthias; Hölzle, Martin (2015)
The Cryosphere
Since the mid-1980s, glaciers in the European Alps have shown widespread and accelerating mass losses. This article presents glacier-specific changes in surface elevation, volume and mass balance for all glaciers in the Swiss Alps from 1980 to 2010. Together with glacier outlines from the 1973 inventory, the DHM25 Level 1 digital elevation models (DEMs) for which the source data over glacierized areas were acquired from 1961 to 1991 are compared to the swissALTI3D DEMs from 2008 to 2011 combined with the new Swiss Glacier Inventory SGI2010. Due to the significant differences in acquisition dates of the source data used, mass changes are temporally homogenized to directly compare individual glaciers or glacierized catchments. Along with an in-depth accuracy assessment, results are validated against volume changes from independent photogrammetrically derived DEMs of single glaciers. Observed volume changes are largest between 2700 and 2800 m a.s.l. and remarkable even above 3500 m a.s.l. The mean geodetic mass balance is −0.62 ± 0.07 m w.e. yr−1 for the entire Swiss Alps over the reference period 1980–2010. For the main hydrological catchments, it ranges from −0.52 to −1.07 m w.e. yr−1. The overall volume loss calculated from the DEM differencing is −22.51 ± 1.76 km3.
Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble
Zekollari, Harry; Huss, Matthias; Farinotti, Daniel (2019)
The Cryosphere
Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. The future evolution of these glaciers is driven by surface mass balance and ice flow processes, of which the latter is to date not included explicitly in regional glacier projections for the Alps. Here, we model the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps with GloGEMflow, an extended version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), in which both surface mass balance and ice flow are explicitly accounted for. The mass balance model is calibrated with glacier-specific geodetic mass balances and forced with high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The evolution of the total glacier volume in the coming decades is relatively similar under the various representative concentrations pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), with volume losses of about 47 %–52 % in 2050 with respect to 2017. We find that under RCP2.6, the ice loss in the second part of the 21st century is relatively limited and that about one-third (36.8 % ± 11.1 %, multi-model mean ±1σ) of the present-day (2017) ice volume will still be present in 2100. Under a strong warming (RCP8.5) the future evolution of the glaciers is dictated by a substantial increase in surface melt, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear by 2100 (94.4±4.4 % volume loss vs. 2017). For a given RCP, differences in future changes are mainly determined by the driving global climate model (GCM), rather than by the RCM, and these differences are larger than those arising from various model parameters (e.g. flow parameters and cross-section parameterisation). We find that under a limited warming, the inclusion of ice dynamics reduces the projected mass loss and that this effect increases with the glacier elevation range, implying that the inclusion of ice dynamics is likely to be important for global glacier evolution projections.
Evidence of accelerated englacial warming in the Monte Rosa area, Switzerland/Italy
Hölzle, Martin; Darms, Gian; Lüthi, Martin P.; et al. (2011)
The Cryosphere
A range of englacial temperature measurements was acquired in the Monte Rosa area at the border of Switzerland and Italy in the years 1982, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2008. Englacial temperatures revealed no evidence of warming at the firn saddle of Colle Gnifetti at 4452 m a.s.l. between 1982 and 1991, the 1991 to 2000 period showed an increase of 0.05 °C per year at a depth of 20 m. From 2000 to 2008 a further increase of 1.3 °C or 0.16 °C per year was observed, indicating that the amount of infiltrating and refreezing meltwater at Colle Gnifetti has probably increased since 2000. The measured temperatures give clear evidence of firn warming since 1991. This is confirmed by five existing boreholes with measured temperature down to bedrock, which were drilled in 1982, 1995, 2003 and 2005. All the observed temperature profiles show a slight bending to warmer temperatures in their uppermost part indicating a warming of the firn, which can be related to the observed atmospheric warming in the 20th century. However, the drilling sites on Colle Gnifetti are still located in the recrystallisation-infiltration zone. A much stronger warming of 6.8 °C or 0.4 °C per year was found at locations beneath Colle Gnifetti on Grenzgletscher from 1991 to 2008. This warming is one order of magnitude greater than the atmospheric warming and can be explained only by a strong increase in the latent heat input by infiltrating and refreezing meltwater. The observations indicate that since 1991, an important firn area beneath Colle Gnifetti has already undergone a firn facies change from the recrystallisation-infiltration to the cold infiltration zone due to an increasing supply of surface melt energy.
Anisotropy of seasonal snow measured by polarimetric phase differences in radar time series
Leinss, Silvan; Löwe, Henning; Proksch, Martin; et al. (2016)
The Cryosphere
The snow microstructure, i.e., the spatial distribution of ice and pores, generally shows an anisotropy which is driven by gravity and temperature gradients and commonly determined from stereology or computer tomography. This structural anisotropy induces anisotropic mechanical, thermal, and dielectric properties. We present a method based on radio-wave birefringence to determine the depth-averaged, dielectric anisotropy of seasonal snow with radar instruments from space, air, or ground. For known snow depth and density, the birefringence allows determination of the dielectric anisotropy by measuring the copolar phase difference (CPD) between linearly polarized microwaves propagating obliquely through the snowpack. The dielectric and structural anisotropy are linked by Maxwell–Garnett-type mixing formulas. The anisotropy evolution of a natural snowpack in Northern Finland was observed over four winters (2009–2013) with the ground-based radar instrument "SnowScat". The radar measurements indicate horizontal structures for fresh snow and vertical structures in old snow which is confirmed by computer tomographic in situ measurements. The temporal evolution of the CPD agreed in ground-based data compared to space-borne measurements from the satellite TerraSAR-X. The presented dataset provides a valuable basis for the development of new snow metamorphism models which include the anisotropy of the snow microstructure.

Publications1 - 10 of 144

Journal: The Cryosphere

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