Journal: Economic Modelling

Abbreviation

Econ. model.

Publisher

Elsevier

Journal Volumes

ISSN

0264-9993

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Publications 1 - 10 of 16
  • Research bubbles
    Item type: Journal Article
    Gersbach, Hans; Komarov, Evgenij (2025)
    Economic Modelling
    We develop a model to rationalize and examine so-called “research bubbles”, i.e. research activities based on overoptimistic beliefs about the impact of this research on the economy. Research bubbles occur when researchers self-select into research activities and the government aggregates the assessment of active researchers on how advances in research may spur innovation and growth. In an overlapping generations framework, we study the occurrence of research bubbles and show that they tend to be welfare-improving. Particular forms can even implement the socially optimal solution. However, research bubbles can collapse, and we discuss institutional devices and the role of debt financing that can ensure the sustainability of such bubbles. Finally, we demonstrate that research bubbles emerge in various extensions of our baseline model.
  • Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools
    Item type: Journal Article
    Buncic, Daniel; Müller, Oliver (2017)
    Economic Modelling
  • Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters
    Item type: Journal Article
    Miftakhova, Alena (2021)
    Economic Modelling
    Climate policy decisions rely heavily on the predictions of climate–economic models. These models are known to be sensitive to their initial assumptions and parameterization. Despite the broad literature exploring this sensitivity, universal, well-established practices are still lacking in this field. This paper endorses a holistic, global approach to sensitivity analysis and advocates it as an indispensable routine in climate–economic modeling. An application of a highly-efficient method of global sensitivity analysis to the seemingly simple case of the DICE model provides two fundamental insights. First, only global and comprehensive—as opposed to local or selective—sensitivity analysis can deliver a full and trustworthy picture of the effect of parameters' uncertainty on the model's solution. Second, a comprehensive decomposition of the uncertainty in the model's output is achievable at modest computational costs. Such decomposition is thus desired and potentially attainable for climate–economic models of higher complexity.
  • Dissecting models' forecasting performance
    Item type: Journal Article
    Siliverstovs, Boriss (2017)
    Economic Modelling
  • Using rule-based updating procedures to improve the performance of composite indicators
    Item type: Journal Article
    Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Siliverstovs, Boriss; et al. (2018)
    Economic Modelling
    Ideally, the set of variables underlying composite indicators is checked and updated when needed on a regular basis. In practise, the timing and procedures of these updates are usually chosen ad hoc. We suggest a rule-based indicator selection updating procedure, performed at regular intervals, which reduces the arbitrariness of this process. We apply this procedure to one of the most prominent targeted composite leading indicator for Switzerland, which is based on bivariate associations of potential variables with a reference series reflecting the Swiss growth rate cycle. We show that in a simulated real-time analysis the targeted indicator selection procedure outperforms the widely used approach to combine as many potential variables as possible. Furthermore, the regular updating procedure preserves the leading properties of the composite indicator with respect to the reference time series, as compared to the same composite indicator without such updates.
  • Stopped TTIP? Its potential impact on the world and the role of neglected FDI
    Item type: Journal Article
    Latorre, María C.; Yonezawa, Hidemichi (2018)
    Economic Modelling
  • Modeling services liberalization
    Item type: Journal Article
    Balistreri, Edward J.; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David G. (2009)
    Economic Modelling
  • Structural and managerial cost differences in nonprofit nursing homes
    Item type: Journal Article
    Di Giorgio, Laura; Filippini, Massimo; Masiero, Giuliano (2015)
    Economic Modelling
  • The impact of scientific research on health care: Evidence from the OECD countrie
    Item type: Journal Article
    Moscone, Francesco; Tosetti, Elisa; Costantini, Marco; et al. (2013)
    Economic Modelling
  • Heterogeneity risks and negative externality
    Item type: Journal Article
    Ba, Shusong; Li, Lu; Huang, Wenli; et al. (2020)
    Economic Modelling
Publications 1 - 10 of 16