Marius Schwarz
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Publications 1 - 10 of 15
- The role of inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers in technological innovations: The case of lithium-ion batteriesItem type: Journal Article
- The Value of Vehicle-to-Grid for the Swiss Electricity SystemItem type: Other Conference Item
- Inter-comparison of spatial models for high shares of renewable electricity in SwitzerlandItem type: Journal Article
- Bardow, André; Fiorentini, Massimo; Heer, Philipp; et al. (2023)Globally, all nations agreed to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This requires a drastic change in the energy system, including a shift towards intermittent renewable energies, the need for sector coupling, flexibility, and efficiency. Flexibility and sector coupling are two concepts widely discussed in the literature, however, a common understanding is missing. In this report, we propose definitions and quantitative metrics for both concepts. Flexibility refers to managing the variations in energy supply and demand at different time scales. While sector coupling describes the interconnection of energy supply and demand sectors such as electricity, heat, gaseous fuels, liquid fuels, and solid fuels to shift loads across them. The application of definitions and metrics are demonstrated for scenario assessment in Switzerland in the PATHFNDR project by using them as inputs or outputs of simulation models as well as policy and market analyses.
- Nexus-e: Scenario Results ReportItem type: ReportGarrison, Jared; Gjorgiev, Blazhe; Han, Xuejiao; et al. (2020)Policy changes in the energy sector result in wide-ranging implications throughout the entire energy system and influence all sectors of the economy. Due partly to the high complexity of combining separate models, few attempts have been undertaken to model the interactions between the components of the energy-economic system. The Nexus-e Integrated Energy Systems Modeling Platform aims to fill this gap by providing an interdisciplinary framework of modules that are linked through well-defined interfaces to holistically analyze and understand the impacts of future developments in the energy system. This platform combines bottom-up and top-down energy modeling approaches to represent a much broader scope of the energy-economic system than traditional stand-alone modeling approaches. In Phase 1 of this project, the objective is to develop a novel tool for the analysis of the Swiss electricity system. This study illustrates the capabilities of Nexus-e in answering the crucial questions of how centralized and distributed flexibility technologies could be deployed in the Swiss electricity system and how they would impact the traditional operation of the system. The aim of the analysis is not policy advice, as some critical developments like the European net-zero emissions goal are not yet included in the scenarios, but rather to illustrate the unique capabilities of the Nexus-e modeling framework. To answer these questions, consistent technical representations of a wide spectrum of current and novel energy supply, demand, and storage technologies are needed as well as a thorough economic evaluation of different investment incentives and the impact investments have on the wider economy. Moreover, these aspects need to be combined with modeling of the long- and short-term electricity market structures and electricity networks. This report illustrates the capabilities of the Nexus-e platform. The Nexus-e Platform consists of five interlinked modules: 1. General Equilibrium Module for Electricity (GemEl): a computable general equilibrium (CGE) module of the Swiss economy, 2. Centralized Investments Module (CentIv): a grid-constrained capacity expansion planning module considering system flexibility requirements, 3. Distributed Investments Module (DistIv): a generation expansion planning module of distributed energy resources, 4. Electricity Market Module (eMark): a market-based dispatch module for determining generator production schedules and electricity market prices, 5. Network Security and Expansion Module (Cascades): a power system security assessment and transmission system expansion planning module. This report presents the results on how centralized and distributed technologies can address the increasing need for flexibility in the Swiss electricity system and how this affects the traditional operation of existing power generation units. We use the Nexus-e platform to simulate three scenarios: The Baseline scenario includes the projected development of techno-economic parameters (e.g., runtime of 50 years for Swiss nuclear power plants) and the status quo of the Swiss legislative and regulatory framework (e.g., financial subsidies for PV systems). The Nuclear-60 scenario reflects the discussion on the nuclear power exit and assumes that nuclear power plants are phased-out after a lifetime of 60 years. The High-Flexibility scenario reflects the discussion on the impact and value of an increased supply of distributed flexibility in the power system and assumes low battery costs and high demandside management potential.It is important to note that net-zero emissions targets (for Switzerland or the surrounding countries currently modeled) are not included in any of the simulated scenarios. Our results show that the nuclear phase-out is achieved alongside substantial investments in new photovoltaic (PV) capacities without causing serious problems matching the supply of electricity with demand. This transition occurs along with some additional investments in biomass and PV-batteries, but no investment in wind power or grid-batteries. The ending of investment subsidies after 2030 reduces the attractiveness of new PV capacities in 2040, but decreasing PV prices spur PV installations in 2050. By 2050, PV is responsible for the largest share (i.e., 32.6-35.5%) of electricity consumption, followed by hydro dam (26.0-28.3%) and hydro run of river (RoR) (15.9-17.4%). Additionally, as nuclear gets phased out, imports become a larger contributor to the supply of electricity in Switzerland providing up to 5.7% of the demand in 2050. Critical, however, is the time between 2030-2040, when the stagnating PV capacity cannot substitute nuclear phase-out fully, resulting in substantially higher net imports of up to 16.5% of the annual demand. Please note that all results presented in this report are subject to pronounced uncertainties and assumptions. Furthermore, the scenarios are illustrative and the results should be interpreted as indicating differences in the trends between scenarios and not interpreted as predictions. Therefore, we do not claim that the current legislative and regulatory framework is sufficient to achieve the renewable energy source (RES) targets. In light of the transition away from nuclear capacities and toward PV capacities, there is an increasing need for flexibility across a wide range of timescales from seasonal to sub-hourly. By utilizing a comprehensive representation of the energy system, the Nexus-e platform assesses how these flexibility needs are supplied, namely through a combination of: capacities in the centralized Swiss generation fleet, imports and exports, and added capacities in the distribution system. First, the seasonality of the net load increases as the PV penetration level grows, indicating the need for higher seasonal flexibility, which is addressed by a greater seasonal reliance on net imports and hydro dams. Second, the increasingly dynamic pattern of the net load on an hourly and daily basis, which emphasizes the need for fast ramping flexible capacities, is mostly covered by rapid changes from imports and exports and hydro dams. To a lesser extent, hydro pumps, hydro RoRs, PV-batteries, and demand-side management (DSM) also react rapidly to help provide the necessary supply. Additionally, higher shares of flexible PV-batteries and DSM resources successfully smooth the hourly net load and thus reduce the reliance on imports/exports for hourly flexibility. Third, tertiary reserve requirements, needed to balance the sub-hourly deviations, increase from year-to-year as new PV investments are added and are supplied by the existing Swiss dispatchable capacities. Fourth, increasing the share of non-dispatchable units has a negative effect on the system security and thus contributes to the risk of systemic failures, but this risk can be addressed with only a couple of transmission line upgrades. PV-batteries and DSM can even further reduce such risk and strengthen system security. The Nexus-e platform is a unique and powerful tool to quantify a wide range of impacts for possible future paths of the Swiss energy system. First of all, it combines bottom-up and top-down energy modeling approaches and thus represents a broader scope of the energy-economic system. This combination accounts for the complexity and interplay of energy demand-supply, macro energy-economic factors, and energy policy drivers across multiple time-scales and levels of aggregation. In terms of the modeled network levels, Nexus-e represents both the centralized and distributed levels of the energy system, which enables us to holistically assess the supply of flexibility across Switzerland at both regional and national scales. Also, Nexus-e is able to conduct simulations with a high-time resolution. The capability of modeling hourly dynamics allows us to capture new behaviors of hydro pumps, battery storage system (BSS), and DSM, which is critical for modeling the short-term demand and supply of flexibility. With such a comprehensive representation, we are able to show that Switzerland could achieve both the nuclear phase-out and RES targets while supplying sufficient flexibility and maintaining system security.
- Schritte zur fossilen Unabhängigkeit für die SchweizItem type: Report
- Nexus-e: A platform of interfaced high-resolution models for energy-economic assessments of future electricity systemsItem type: Journal Article
- Nexus-e: Validation and Calibration of ModulesItem type: ReportGarrison, Jared; Gjorgiev, Blazhe; Han, Xuejiao; et al. (2020)Policy changes in the energy sector result in wide-ranging implications throughout the entire energy system and influence all sectors of the economy. Due partly to the high complexity of combining separate models, few attempts have been undertaken to model the interactions between the components of the energy-economic system. The Nexus-e Integrated Energy Systems Modeling Platform aims to fill this gap by providing an interdisciplinary framework of modules that are linked through well-defined interfaces to holistically analyze and understand the impacts of future developments in the energy system. This platform combines bottom-up and top-down energy modeling approaches to represent a much broader scope of the energy-economic system than traditional stand-alone modeling approaches. In Phase 1 of this project, the objective is to develop a novel tool for the analysis of the Swiss electricity system. This study illustrates the capabilities of Nexus-e in answering the crucial questions of how centralized and distributed flexibility technologies could be deployed in the Swiss electricity system and how they would impact the traditional operation of the system. The aim of the analysis is not policy advice, as some critical developments like the European net-zero emissions goal are not yet included in the scenarios, but rather to illustrate the unique capabilities of the Nexus-e modeling framework. To answer these questions, consistent technical representations of a wide spectrum of current and novel energy supply, demand, and storage technologies are needed as well as a thorough economic evaluation of different investment incentives and the impact investments have on the wider economy. Moreover, these aspects need to be combined with modeling of the long- and short-term electricity market structures and electricity networks. This report illustrates the capabilities of the Nexus-e platform. The Nexus-e Platform consists of five interlinked modules: 1. General Equilibrium Module for Electricity (GemEl): a computable general equilibrium (CGE) module of the Swiss economy, 2. Centralized Investments Module (CentIv): a grid-constrained capacity expansion planning module considering system flexibility requirements, 3. Distributed Investments Module (DistIv): a generation expansion planning module of distributed energy resources, 4. Electricity Market Module (eMark): a market-based dispatch module for determining generator production schedules and electricity market prices, 5. Network Security and Expansion Module (Cascades): a power system security assessment and transmission system expansion planning module. This report describes the validation and calibration of the different modules within the Nexus-e framework. The objectives of the validation and the calibration of the Nexus-e modules is to develop trustworthy and high-fidelity modules as well as to adjust the modules to better represent the complexity of the involved real systems and processes
- The role of Policies for the Diffusion of Low-Carbon Technologies and their System IntegrationItem type: Doctoral ThesisSchwarz, Marius (2020)Climate change has become one of the grand challenges for humankind. With the 2019 IPCC report demonstrating the urge to keep global warming below 1.5°C and the increasing public awareness triggered by grassroots movements such as Fridays For Future, in many nations, policymakers began to pledge to go carbon neutral by 2050. The energy sector is responsible for two-thirds of global carbon emissions, making its decarbonization pivotal for combating climate change. Critical to national energy transitions is the expansion of low-carbon technologies, but many of them—being novel and immature—fail to compete with established technologies on markets. Other low-carbon technologies that have matured began replacing established technologies but, with their emergence, also raised integration challenges. For example, wind and solar's inherent variability jeopardizes a reliable power systems operation and demands increasing flexibility. Another example are socio-economic challenges such as rising electricity prices, eroding business models of electric utilities, and partisan support of public policies for renewables. To support policymakers addressing these challenges and advancing energy transitions, this dissertation aims to improve our understanding of how policies can support the diffusion of low-carbon technologies and their system integration. I shed light on this question by investigating the impact of policies on actors' decision-making processes, including determinants, barriers, and technology adoption mechanisms. For this purpose, I use the research cases of the energy transitions in Switzerland and California, which allow an evaluation of individual technology diffusion and the evolving repercussions between technologies and the overarching system during energy transitions. I apply a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, including agent-based modeling and case study research, and use multiple data sources, including archival data and expert interviews. I specify the overarching research question in four articles, each addressing a distinct gap in the literature. Article I evaluates the impact of historical and projected policies on the diffusion of residential solar power and battery storage in California and their collective impact on carbon emissions, the need for flexibility, and electricity prices. Article II extends this analysis by shedding light on the importance of an individual policy instrument (i.e., electricity pricing) for technology diffusion and integration and including the coupling between the power and transportation sectors. Article III investigates the development of one policy instrument in-depth (i.e., building energy codes), evaluating the challenges of the instrument's implementation and deriving learnings for general policy development. Article IV focuses on individual technology diffusion and compares the impact of multiple policies on three different technologies in the same contextual settings. This dissertation contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it provides insights on policy impact on technology diffusion. It shows that policy support can affect low-carbon technology diffusion in different ways: policy can enable technology diffusion, accelerate an ongoing one, pull forward the start of a diffusion, or leave it unaffected. Simultaneously, policies can adversely affect the economic attractiveness of conventional technologies when supporting low-carbon technologies. Further, this dissertation shows that while one policy instrument often affects multiple technologies, multiple policies have to be combined to impact one technology's diffusion substantially. Within such policy mixes, individual instruments typically have complementary effects, but they can also be opposing due to unintended side effects. Second, this dissertation provides insights for technology diffusion modeling. It outlines that socio-economic factors affect the decision-making of agents substantially. It also reinforces the call of literature on including actor behavior and heterogeneity. Further, this dissertation outlines that technologies often influence each other during their diffusion, particularly focal and complementary technologies. Finally, I demonstrate that models should include the link between technology diffusion and the overarching system, particularly when investigating advanced energy transitions. This dissertation, therefore, calls for multi-policy, multi-technology diffusion models that include necessary systemic feedbacks. Based on these contributions, the dissertation has implications for policymakers. In countries that are frontrunners in renewable energies, policymakers increasingly face the challenge of how and when to phase out renewables support. If they keep high support relative to the technology's underlying cost, there is the risk of windfall profits and increasing electricity prices. In contrast, if they withdraw support, technology diffusion might slow down, causing boom-and-bust cycles with negative consequences for the economy. Further, this dissertation outlines general policy design principles. Policymakers should keep the additional burden for consumers light, especially when implementing technology-specific policies as they can cause higher societal costs than technology-neutral requirements. Policymakers should also provide long-term regulatory certainty for industry and consumers to spur innovation. They should also learn from frontrunners but adapt learnings to the local context. Further, this dissertation has implications for electric utilities, particularly on the utility death spiral discussion. While even utilities in countries without public support for renewables might face the challenge of declining electricity sales, I show that the likely electrification of other sectors, particularly the massive uptake of electric vehicles with its attendant extra demand, likely mitigates or even reverses the death spiral.
- Energy security in a net zero emissions future for SwitzerlandItem type: ReportHug, Gabriela; Demiray, Turhan; Filippini, Massimo; et al. (2023)
Publications 1 - 10 of 15