Tim Tröndle

Last Name

Tröndle

First Name

Tim

ORCID

0000-0002-3734-8284

Organisational unit

09451 - Patt, Anthony G. / Patt, Anthony G.

Show all metadata

Search Results

Publications 1 - 10 of 25

Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization - the cases of Spain and Germany
Bersalli, Germán; Tröndle, Tim; Heckmann, Leon; et al. (2024)
Climate Policy
Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.
Trade-Offs between Geographic Scale, Cost, and Infrastructure Requirements for Fully Renewable Electricity in Europe.
Tröndle, Tim; Lilliestam, Johan; Marelli, Stefano; et al. (2020)
Joule
The Authors The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure.
Public preferences for phasing-out fossil fuels in the german building and transport sectors
Tröndle, Tim; Annaheim, Jasmin; Hoppe, Janna; et al. (2023)
Environmental Research Communications
In most of Europe, the decarbonisation of the building and transport sectors lags behind emission targets. Achieving full decarbonisation requires not only the diffusion of net-zero emission technologies but also the phase-out of technologies that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). However, implementing policy changes in these sectors can have an immediate and significant impact on people's day-to-day life, leading to a higher risk of political backlash, as exemplified by the yellow vest movement in France. In this study, we investigate public preferences for phase-out policy packages in both sectors in Germany by conducting two conjoint experiments with 1,777 respondents in March 2022. Respondents collectively evaluated a total of 17,770 policy packages per sector, specifically targeting the phase-out of fossil fuel-based heating systems and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). We find that respondents favour earlier phase-out dates for both technologies, but the type of preferred instruments varies: while regulatory instruments like bans are preferred for heating systems, economic instruments like taxes are preferred for ICEVs. These preferences are even more pronounced in people most concerned about climate change. In addition, we find that people with higher knowledge about sector emissions tend to demonstrate higher acceptance of policy interventions and that supportive measures significantly enhance the attractiveness of policy packages. Our findings can inform the design of phase-out policy packages, potentially increasing their acceptability and political feasibility.
Supply-side options to reduce land requirements of fully renewable electricity in Europe
Tröndle, Tim (2020)
PLoS ONE
Renewable electricity can fully decarbonise the European electricity supply, but large land requirements may cause land-use conflicts. Using a dynamic model that captures renewable fluctuations, I explore the relationship between land requirements and total system cost of different supply-side options in the future. Cost-minimal fully renewable electricity requires some 97,000 km2 (2% of total) land for solar and wind power installations, roughly the size of Portugal, and includes large shares of onshore wind. Replacing onshore wind with offshore wind, utility-scale PV, or rooftop PV reduces land requirements drastically with only small cost penalties. Moving wind power offshore is most cost-effective and reduces land requirements by 50% for a cost penalty of only 5%. Wind power can alternatively be replaced by photovoltaics, leading to a cost penalty of 10% for the same effect. My research shows that fully renewable electricity supply can be designed with very different physical appearances and impacts on landscapes and the population, but at similar cost.
Potential costs and benefits of a right-to-charge policy: an example for Switzerland
Späth, Leonhard; Tröndle, Tim; Patt, Anthony (2023)
Electric vehicles (EVs) are essential to decarbonize individual mobility and their adoption is highly dependent on the possibility of charging at home. However, tenants in multi-family apartment buildings face legal and financial barriers to the installation of home-charging. Through this study for Switzerland, we make the case of the economic benefits of a policy overcoming these barriers. Through an extrapolation of the EV diffusions towards 2035, we show that the benefits of switching towards EVs are overwhelming positive for its users and for society in general. The acceleration of EV adoption through a right-to-charge policy can potentially benefit the Swiss population by about 12 billion USD, corresponding to about 1.5 percent of GDP. Failing to implement an easy access to home charging-infrastructure in a timely manner will results in a considerable loss for the Swiss economy, eventually at the costs of citizens and the climate.
Mitigating future winter electricity deficits: A case study from Switzerland
Mellot, Adrien; Moretti, Christian; Tröndle, Tim; et al. (2024)
Energy Conversion and Management
The transition to a net-zero economy with increased electrification of transport and heating poses electricity supply challenges during the winter months, particularly in PV-dominated systems. This study explores comprehensively various strategies and their combinations to address potential winter electricity deficits in Switzerland. Our innovative modelling integrates three sectors (electricity, heat, and transport), neighbouring countries, and environmental life cycle considerations. Among potential strategies to mitigate Swiss winter electricity deficit, electricity imports from neighbouring countries are taken as the benchmark policy strategy. Our analysis reveals that only gas-fired power plants and alpine PV, if applied in isolation, are technology options that alleviate the Swiss winter deficit and reduce cost at the same time. Increasing other single power technologies individually, or importing hydrogen, alleviate the deficit, too, but they inflate energy system costs by 18%–34% compared to relying on electricity imports. Despite the strategies for mitigating the winter deficit assessed being substantially different, our study found no significant environmental concerns regarding local land requirements or critical raw material needs. However, each strategy might imply the need for certain fuel imports and can have a profound impact on determining cost-optimal heating strategies for buildings. With an additional 1.4 GW of gas-fired power plant fuelled by domestic bio-methane, 4 GW of alpine PV, 2.2 GW of wind turbines, and no cost increase compared to its current roadmap, Switzerland could have a fully renewable energy system with a reduced winter deficit and no fuel imports.
Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040
Noll, Bessie; Graff, Darius; Schmidt, Tobias; et al. (2026)
Nature Energy
While decarbonizing road transport is crucial for global climate goals, there is limited quantitative evidence on the economic viability and life-cycle emissions of low-carbon passenger vehicles in Africa, where motorization is rising. Here we study the economic cost and life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of low-carbon passenger transport in Africa across six segments in 52 African countries through 2040. Using Monte Carlo and optimization models, we compare the total cost of ownership and life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of battery electric vehicles powered by solar off-grid systems and synthetic fuelled vehicles to that of fossil-fuelled ones, neglecting policy-induced cost distortions. Whereas past reports suggested fossil fuel vehicles would dominate in Africa by mid-century, our results show that battery electric vehicles with solar off-grid chargers will have lower costs and negative greenhouse gas abatement costs well before 2040 in most countries and segments. Financing is identified as the key action point for governments and global financial institutions to accelerate Africa’s transition to battery electric vehicles with solar off-grid charging offering a cost-effective, viable solution to electricity infrastructure challenges.
Visions for our future regional electricity system: Citizen preferences in four EU countries
Mey, Franziska; Lilliestam, Johan; Wolf, Ingo; et al. (2024)
iScience
As climate targets tighten, all countries must transition toward a renewable electricity system, but conflicts about generation and infrastructure deployment impede transition progress. Although the triggers of opposition are well studied, what people want remains understudied. We survey citizen preferences for a renewable electricity future through a conjoint analysis among 4,103 individuals in Denmark, Portugal, Poland, and Germany. With our study we go beyond the Likert scale survey approach specifically seeking trade-offs and contextualized preferences for regional electricity system designs. We show the importance of identifying both the “least preferred” and “most preferred” solutions and highlighting the possibility of identifying very different systems with identical utility. Lastly, our research actively bridges the divide between social aspects and techno-economic modeling, promoting their integration. We show that the most preferred system design in all four countries is a predominantly regional one, based on rooftop solar, communally owned, and not relying on transmission expansion.
Renewable electricity for all: Untangling conflicts about where to build Europe’s future supply infrastructure
Tröndle, Tim (2020)
The European Union aims to fully decarbonise its electricity system by 2050 and relies largely on renewable electricity to reach this goal. A complete decarbonisation requires a large expansion of electricity infrastructure, such as wind farms, solar farms, and transmission lines. The expansion is controversially debated, with different preferences about which infrastructure should be built and where. Preferences diverge for four reasons. First, infrastructure competes with other uses of land and alters landscapes. Second, location and size of renewable infrastructure projects determine ownership structures: large, centralised installations are better for large investors, while small, decentralised installations are better for small investors. Third, cost of electricity varies by region, based on the quality of locally available renewable resources. Fourth, the more electricity countries, regions, and municipalities generate locally, the less they must depend on imports. In building upon the diverging preferences regarding these impacts, three dominant logics determine where and which renewable infrastructure should be built. Within the first logic, it should be driven by cost and thus built where it is cheapest. Within the second logic, it should be driven by location of demand and thus built within local communities. Within the third logic, it should be built in such a way that reduces impairment of landscapes. Because the three logics are conflicting, there is no consensus regarding infrastructure allocation. This lack of consensus may serve as a problem, as it increases opposition against developments and thus may slow or even stop the energy transition. Within three contributions, I analyse the technical feasibility, economic viability, and land requirements of the three logics. My objective is to determine the extent to which the logics are possible, the extent to which they conflict, and whether compromise solutions exist that may relieve conflicts. In the first contribution, I analyse the technical possibility of the demand-driven logic. By determining solar and wind generation potentials and contrasting them with today’s electricity demand, I identify whether self-sufficiency is possible, or whether imports are necessary. I find that the generation potential of Europe and all countries within Europe is large enough to satisfy annual electricity demand. On the regional (subnational) and municipal scales, most places have the potential for self-sufficiency, though some do not -- in particular, those with a high population density. My findings show that the demand-driven logic is technically possible in most places within Europe but that some places require electricity imports. In the second contribution, I analyse the economic viability of the demand-driven logic and contrast it with the cost-driven logic. Using a dynamic model of the electricity system, I determine cost of electricity when there is unlimited trade on the continental scale (cost-driven logic), and when trade is limited to within countries or subnational regions (demand-driven logic). I find that cost increases with smaller scales and that the demand-driven logic leads to the highest cost. However, I find also that cost is primarily driven by where and how renewable fluctuations are balanced rather than where and how electricity is generated. While a trade-off between cost and scale exists, cost penalties of the demand-driven logic must not be large as long as fluctuations of renewable generation are balanced at continental scale. In the third contribution, I analyse land requirements and the economic viability of the landscape-driven logic. Using the same model as before, I analyse the relationship between cost and land requirements of the electricity system by varying shares of solar and wind supply technologies. I find that the cost-minimal case (cost-driven) is based in equal parts on onshore wind and solar power on fields and requires some 2% of Europe’s land, roughly the size of Portugal. Land requirements can be reduced by replacing onshore wind with offshore wind or solar power, but land must be traded-off against cost. Cost penalties, however, are not substantial: half of the land requirements can be avoided for an expected cost penalty of only 5% when onshore wind turbines are moved offshore. The findings demonstrate the economic viability of the landscape-driven logic. My findings have two important implications for European energy policy and the transition to a decarbonised electricity system. First, I show that renewable electricity based on any of the three logics is technically feasible and economically viable almost everywhere in Europe. However, the logics have very different impacts on landscapes, economies, and societies. The question of where and which renewable infrastructure should be built is a normative question. Second, I show that renewable electricity is feasible not only when strictly following one logic, but also by mixing aspects of the logics, and that necessary trade-offs must not be strong. For example, a system supplied primarily by solar power on the regional scale with continental trade for balancing, has low cost, low land requirements, and high local independence. Similarly, a system supplied by primarily offshore wind and solar power on the national scale has low cost, low land requirements, and high national independence. Such compromise solutions may not be ideal in any logic, but they may be acceptable to all, and thus have the potential to relieve conflicts and enable a faster energy transition.
High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs
McKenna, Russell; Pfenninger, Stefan; Heinrichs, Heidi; et al. (2022)
Renewable Energy
The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.

Publications 1 - 10 of 25

Tim Tröndle

Last Name

First Name

ORCID

Organisational unit

Filters

Search Results