Laura Suarez-Gutierrez

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Suarez-Gutierrez

First Name

Laura

ORCID

0000-0002-0008-5943

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Publications 1 - 10 of 19

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation
Wallberg, Lara; Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Matei, Daniela; et al. (2025)
Geophysical Research Letters
Focusing on predicting anomalously warm temperatures in Europe, this study delves into a coupled mechanism within the North Atlantic ocean. By examining the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we unveil its potential for forecasting extreme European summers several years in advance. Through a novel ensemble selection approach that integrates this mechanism, we evaluate its impact on decadal temperature prediction skill. Our analysis demonstrates significant enhancements in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of Central European summer temperature extremes over multiple lead years. These findings underscore the value of incorporating sub-decadal oceanic processes into climate prediction methodologies, offering critical insights for mitigation strategies against the impacts of anomalous heat events.
Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change
Messori, Gabriele; Muheki, Derrick; Batibeniz, Fulden; et al. (2025)
Earth's Future
Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can further exacerbate the detrimental consequences for society. By analyzing postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds and crop failures. In line with the existing literature, we find sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires. Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences. A similarly striking change is projected for the future recurrence of compound hazards or impacts, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm. Plain Language Summary Climate-related extreme events often result in large and negative societal impacts, and many such events are likely to become more frequent in the future. The joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events can lead to even larger impacts than those of extremes occurring in isolation. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation to minimize the ongoing climatic change, we find that many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing extreme events in isolation to routinely experiencing the joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events. Such joint occurrences may repeatedly affect the same region for several years, or even decades, in a row.
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Xoplaki, Elena; Ellsäßer, Florian; Grieger, Jens; et al. (2025)
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.
Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability
Beobide-Arsuaga , Goratz; Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Barkhordarian , Armineh; et al. (2025)
Nature Communications
In recent years, European summer heatwaves have strongly intensified due to rising anthropogenic emissions. While European summer heatwaves will continue to intensify due to the warming of summer temperatures, the effects of the changes in internal variability under global warming remain unknown. Employing five single-model initial-condition large ensembles, we find that the forced changes in internal variability are projected to intensify central and northern European summer heatwaves. Central and northern Europe will experience frequent moisture limitations, enhancing land-atmosphere feedback and increasing heatwave intensity and variability. In contrast, the forced changes in internal variability will contribute to weakening southern European summer heatwaves. Southern Europe is projected to face a more stable moisture-depleted environment that reduces extreme temperature variability and heatwave intensity. Our findings imply that while adaptation to increasing mean temperatures in southern Europe should suffice to reduce the vulnerability to increasing EuSHW intensity, in central and northern Europe adaptation to increased temperature variability will also be needed.
The future of hot and dry events in the breadbasket regions of maize
Dietz, Victoria; Baehr, Johanna; Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; et al. (2025)
Environmental Research Letters
Heatwaves and dry spells can severely impact crop yields, making it crucial to understand the nature of these events to ensure food security in a changing climate. We use the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble to examine the occurrence of hot–dry extremes in key crop-producing regions known as 'breadbasket regions', either in single or multiple breadbasket regions simultaneously, focusing on the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Our findings reveal strong increases in hot–dry events across all individual breadbasket regions between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, with ensemble mean probabilities indicating that occurrences more than double in South Asia and triple in East Asia. Moreover, the likelihood of multiple breadbasket regions experiencing extreme events simultaneously increases significantly between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. Scenarios that were historically considered virtually impossible and very unlikely under 1.5 °C, such as at least four regions being affected by hot–dry events in the same growing season, could occur with a 1-in-14 year likelihood under 2 °C of warming. We find that, among the breadbasket regions, Central Europe, East Asia, and Central North America most often experience these events simultaneously within the same growing season. Between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds, the probability of simultaneous occurrence increases the most for the connection between these regions. In contrast, South Asia is least likely to be affected simultaneously with other regions, possibly providing insights for risk management.
The significant influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability to the abrupt warming in Northeast Asia in the 1990s
Zhang, Kaiwen; Zuo, Zhiyan; Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; et al. (2024)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Northeast Asia experienced unprecedented abrupt warming in the 1990s since the last century. Based on a robust time series and rank frequency evaluation, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensembles of CMIP5 (MPI-GE5), CMIP6 (MPI-GE6), EC-Earth3 and IPSL-CM6A-LR were identified as the models that best simulate the external forcing and internal variability in observations and represent observations most adequately. The negative-to-positive phase transition of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), combined with the external forcing, can explain 88% [60%−111%] of the 1990s warming. With prescribed anthropogenic emissions in the near future, a phase shift in the AMV to +2 (-2) standard deviation will amplify (weaken) the warming over Northeast Asia by 37% [29%−49%] (19% [15%−25%]). This highlights the importance of natural climate variability in Northeast Asia’s government decision-making and risk management, and emphasizes that only climate models with an adequate representation of forced warming can quantify these contributions correctly.
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation
Wallberg, Lara; Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Matei, Daniela; et al. (2024)
Earth System Dynamics
The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub-and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean-Atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018-2022 heat and drought events
Knutzen, Florian; Averbeck, Paul; Barrasso, Caterina; et al. (2025)
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being and ecosystem functioning. The intensity and effects of these events vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers to understand spatial variability in drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage are currently dispersed across scientific publications, government reports, and media outlets. This study consolidates data on drought and heat damage in European forests from 2018 to 2022, using Europe-wide datasets including those related to crown defoliation, insect damage, burnt forest areas, and tree cover loss. The data, covering 16 European countries, were analysed across four regions, northern, central, Alpine, and southern, and compared with a reference period from 2010 to 2014.Findings reveal that forests in all zones experienced reduced vitality due to drought and elevated temperatures, with varying severity. Central Europe showed the highest vulnerability, impacting both coniferous and deciduous trees. The southern zone, while affected by tree cover loss, demonstrated greater resilience, likely due to historical drought exposure. The northern zone is experiencing emerging impacts less severely, possibly due to site-adapted boreal species, while the Alpine zone showed minimal impact, suggesting a protective effect of altitude.Key trends include (1) significant tree cover loss in the northern, central, and southern zones; (2) high damage levels despite 2021 being an average year, indicating lasting effects from previous years; (3) notable challenges in the central zone and in Sweden due to bark beetle infestations; and (4) no increase in wildfire severity in southern Europe despite ongoing challenges.Based on this assessment, we conclude that (i) European forests are highly vulnerable to drought and heat, with even resilient ecosystems at risk of severe damage; (ii) tailored strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts on European forests, incorporating regional differences in forest damage and resilience; and (iii) effective management requires harmonised data collection and enhanced monitoring to address future challenges comprehensively.
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Rousi, Efi; Fink, Andreas H.; Andersen, Lauren S.; et al. (2023)
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5°C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2°C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
François, Bastien; Teber, Khalil; Brett, Lou; et al. (2025)
Earth System Dynamics
Compound wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes often cause severe impacts on human society and ecosystems, such as damage to crops and infrastructure. Spatially compounding events with multiple regions affected by CWP extremes in the same winter can impact the global economy and reinsurance industry; however, our understanding of these events is limited. While climate variability modes such as El Ni & ntilde;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the frequency of precipitation and wind extremes, their individual and combined effects on spatial co-occurrences of CWP extremes across the Northern Hemisphere have not been systematically examined. Here, by combining reanalysis data and climate model simulations, we investigate how two oceanic and two atmospheric variability modes - ENSO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) - amplify the wintertime (December-February) frequency of daily CWP extremes and associated spatial co-occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere. We find many hotspot regions where concurrent variability mode anomalies significantly amplify wintertime CWP extreme event frequencies compared to single variability modes. By examining the relationships between frequencies of wintertime CWP extremes across regions, we identify dependencies enabling extreme spatially compounding events, that is winters with many regions experiencing CWP extremes. While ENSO is the most influential variability mode for such extreme spatially compounding events, the occurrence of these events increases further when multiple modes of variability are in anomalous phases. In particular, combinations of modes increase both the number of regions and the population exposed to daily CWP extremes in the same winter. For example, combined ENSO- and NAO+ nearly doubles the number of affected regions compared to neutral conditions on average. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering the interplay between variability modes to improve risk management and adapt to the impacts of spatially compounding CWP extremes.

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