Bryan T. Adey


Last Name

Adey

First Name

Bryan T.

ORCID

0000-0002-4932-5901

Organisational unit

03859 - Adey, Bryan T. / Adey, Bryan T.

Search Results

Publications1 - 10 of 125
  • A simulation-based methodology to assess resilience enhancing interventions for transport systems: A retention basin example
    Item type: Conference Paper
    Nasrazadani, Hossein; Adey, Bryan T.; Moghtadernejad, Saviz; et al. (2022)
    Proceedings of the 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022)
    This paper proposes a simulation-based methodology to evaluate the resilience of infrastructure systems considering multiple intervention scenarios. The proposed methodology features probabilistic models that are used to simulate the: 1) spatiotemporal formation of hazard events, e.g., heavy rainfall causing flooding, 2) physical and functional impacts on individual infrastructure components, followed by their performance as a system, and lastly, 3) the implementation of response and restoration measures. It also features models that characterize interventions and simulate their effects on models mentioned above. The output of the simulations is a list of metrics, e.g., the reduction in direct and indirect consequences, that can be used to evaluate the effects of interventions. The proposed methodology takes into account the uncertainties related to hazard occurrence and their impact on infrastructure systems in the evaluation of interventions, which is a major advancement over existing studies that use static hazard maps. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by using it to evaluate the benefits of three candidate storm water retention basins on enhancing the resilience of a road network in Switzerland subject to heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides. The example provides insight into the data required to conduct such a comprehensive analysis with the presented level of detail. The proposed methodology serves as a decision support tool to facilitate the assessment and hence, planning of resilience enhancing interventions.
  • Investing in water supply resilience considering uncertainty and management flexibility
    Item type: Journal Article
    Adey, Bryan T.; Martani, Claudio; Hackl, Jürgen (2022)
    Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Smart Infrastructure and Construction
    This paper demonstrates how to make investment decisions that optimally improve water supply resilience, taking into consideration both future uncertainty and management flexibility. The demonstration is done by evaluating investment strategies for a 38 Ml/d water treatment plant serving an urban area with approximately 75 000 inhabitants, where there is uncertainty with respect to future population growth, industrial production, external demand and the amount of rainfall due to climate change. It is shown that the quantification and comparison of the possible reductions in service and intervention costs over comparably long periods enables the optimal investment decisions – that is, the ones with the optimal trade-offs between stakeholders. Additionally, it can be seen that the used methodology enables the consistent and transparent consideration of (a) the concerns of multiple stakeholders, (b) the future deep uncertainty associated with key concerns and (c) the flexibility of infrastructure managers to make decisions in the future using new information. The methodology also ensures that managers have clear plans of action and considerable insight into the extent of required future financing.
  • Determination of Optimal Rolling Planning Period for the Management of BIM-Based Construction Supply Chain Processes
    Item type: Conference Paper
    Chen, Qian; García de Soto Lastra, Borja; Adey, Bryan T. (2022)
    Construction Research Congress 2022: Project Management and Delivery, Contracts, and Design and Materials
    Current construction projects often suffer from a lack of synchronization between on-site material requirements and supply. This is at least partially because of the use of a fixed rolling planning period and the length of material lead times. The length of the rolling planning period matters because it affects when materials are ordered. The later the materials are ordered, the higher the chance of having material shortages that will cause progress delays. The earlier the materials are ordered, the higher the chance of having them delivered too early and having to organize storage and keeping track of inventory. This study proposes a methodology to determine the optimal rolling planning period for construction projects, that is, the period that provides the lowest total cost considering unexpected delays in construction progress and the unexpected need to store materials on site. The optimal period was determined using data extracted from a regularly updated building information model (BIM) and a heuristic search algorithm. The methodology is used to plan the raw materials for site-mix concrete for an office building project to be completed in four weeks. It is shown that the methodology can reduce costs related to materials arriving too early or too late on site.
  • A preliminary investigation of the potential benefits of using the ASTRA Bridge for short-span bridge deck refurbishment projects in Switzerland
    Item type: Journal Article
    Zumstein, Marco; Chen, Qian; Adey, Bryan T.; et al. (2024)
    Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
    How bridge refurbishment projects are performed requires a trade-off between the speed and cost of the project and the amount of traffic disturbances during the project. A possible way to help reach a better balance between these two extremes is the ASTRA Bridge developed in Switzerland. The ASTRA Bridge is a 236-meter long steel ramp system on wheels, which is placed on top of the bridge deck undergoing refurbishment to enable vehicles to continue to pass over the bridge while construction work progresses underneath. This study illustrates new refurbishment processes by using the ASTRA Bridge and presents the first quantitative analysis of the effects of using the ASTRA Bridge on the time, costs and traffic disturbances associated with bridge refurbishment. The bridge investigated is a short-span (50 m long) highway bridge requiring refurbishment of its superstructure. The analysis indicates that the use of the ASTRA Bridge resulted in reductions in duration and costs (14% and 3% for the example), and a substantial reduction in user costs (51% for the example). Although more analysis is required for different types of refurbishment projects, the initial results indicate that the ASTRA Bridge may become an integral part of future highway bridge refurbishment projects.
  • Evaluating design modifications on a building portfolio considering future uncertainty and multiple stakeholders
    Item type: Conference Paper
    Martani, Claudio; Calen, Nicholas; Adey, Bryan T. (2023)
    Life-Cycle of Structures and Infrastructure Systems
    The optimization of interventions for urban regeneration projects is a complex task that involves substantial investments and impacts the service provided to stakeholders over a long period. Part of the complexity of optimizing interventions on large building portfolio is that they are typically financed by a subset of the affected stakeholders, i.e., the owners or building developers who are understandably inclined to maximize their own interests and not those of the wider community. Another part is the need to account for uncertainty in future market demand across a portfolio of buildings, e.g., the possible future large-scale use of remote working, makes it questionable whether the current fixed configurations of many buildings (e.g., offices that have been dimensioned for a fixed demand, and residential units without proper places to work) will enable an optimal use of space, affecting the service provided to multiple stakeholders. This problem is particularly acute in urban areas. In recent years, the possibility has been put forward to use the real options method for optimizing the design and management of assets considering future uncertainty. The method, however, has never been used to determine optimal design of multiple buildings for multiple stakeholders. In this paper a general methodology is presented to evaluate design modifications for a building portfolio considering future uncertainty and the interests of multiple stakeholders. The methodology makes explicit that there is a need to consider the effects of regulations and incentives in to encourage owners to select design modifications that are in the best interest of all stakeholders.
  • Fast-lane for planning cycling infrastructure: On the effectiveness and efficiency of cycling infrastructure planning processes
    Item type: Journal Article
    Elvarsson, Arnor B.; Zani, David; Adey, Bryan T. (2026)
    Journal of Cycling and Micromobility Research
    Timely development of cycling infrastructure is essential to achieving societal goals such as decarbonisation and cyclist traffic safety. However, delays in infrastructure project completion persist across many planning contexts, partly due to the infrastructure planning processes. This paper addresses the lack of academic research on infrastructure planning process improvement, specifically for cycling infrastructure, by applying a structured, three-step methodology—process mapping, process analysis and improvement proposal—to the case of Canton Zürich, Switzerland. The paper includes mapping the existing cycling infrastructure planning process, identifying process-related challenges using three decision-making criteria (technical readiness, societal consensus, and political-financial prioritisation), and proposing targeted improvements. Key findings highlight the need for timely planning mandates, early-stage cost overviews, and systematic treatment of uncertainty to enhance planning process efficiency. It is argued that these process modifications can accelerate the realisation of cycling infrastructure projects and improve alignment with long-term strategic goals such as achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. By bridging the gap between planning process design and infrastructure outcomes, this study contributes an approach for analysing and improving planning processes. The findings are relevant for infrastructure planners, policymakers, and researchers seeking to support more effective and efficient cycling infrastructure development.
  • Potential and Systematisation of Video-based Analysis of Bicycle Conflicts
    Item type: Conference Paper
    Zeier, Silvan; Zani, David; Uhr, Andrea; et al. (2024)
    Road accidents involving bicycles are becoming increasingly common in urban areas. To improve accident prevention, proactive road safety instruments (i.e., conflict analysis) are a promising supplement to the existing reactive road safety instruments. However, current research does not sufficiently account for the particularities (underestimated injury severity based on weight, speed, and collision angle) of road conflicts involving cyclists in video-based conflict analyses. To further the research on proactive safety instruments, this work developed a systematisation of existing methods using video-based conflict analysis. The recordings took place at a critical traffic node in Zurich and the resulting video data was evaluated. Conflict attributes (post-encroachment-time and time-to-collision) were calculated from the extracted trajectories. An adjusted severity formula was developed to identify and weight the potentially most relevant conflicts. The conflicts were thus analysed according to traffic mode, type of conflict, and expected collision severity, generating an analysis of conflict events at critical traffic nodes that considers the particularities of cyclists. The expected conflict severities were shown to be highest for cyclists and other vulnerable road users. These results provide an improved understanding of the conflicts and safety, supporting a more proactive approach to increasing road safety. Although the developed systematisation offers an improvement to the state-of-the-art, the collected video data has deficits. The trajectories extracted by the video remain imprecise and often cannot distinguish between the different road users. Based on this, the generation of trajectories should be further developed, and the current results of a conflict analysis should be interpreted with caution. As this work is a new attempt at an expected severity-based conflict analysis, the methodology should be further evaluated and verified at other urban traffic nodes.
  • A “Scope, Simulation, and Story” approach to identify future spatial development scenarios
    Item type: Conference Paper
    Roman, Orlando; Kwakkel , Jan; Adey, Bryan T.; et al. (2025)
    Scenario planning often qualitatively develops storylines. These scenarios are usually depicted in a 2 × 2 scenario matrix, where it is challenging to define, for example, the drivers of change to consider in the axes and the boundaries between scenarios. In this qualitative approach, simulation models are typically used as evaluation tools only after the scenarios are generated. This approach is commonly known in the literature as “Story and Simulation”. This study introduces a “Scope, Simulation, and Story” approach, which has the potential to enhance scenario planning by informing the development of scenarios through computational modelling. Thus, we can integrate participatory processes, spatial development simulation models, and spatial analysis to define scenario boundaries that reflect spatial patterns. We applied this method to simulate spatial development in the Canton of Zurich for 2050 using a cellular automata Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model.
  • Journal of Infrastructure Systems: Thirty Years and an Opportunity to Refocus
    Item type: Other Journal Item
    McNeil, Sue; Adey, Bryan T.; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch.; et al. (2025)
    Journal of Infrastructure Systems
  • Empirical comparison of weighted and non-weighted reference class forecasting
    Item type: Journal Article
    Zani, David; Adey, Bryan T. (2025)
    Infrastructure Asset Management
    This work investigates the potential for improved accuracy of a cost-estimating method called weighted reference class forecasting (WRCF) with respect to the traditional reference class forecasting (RCF) method. WRCF is a modification of the RCF method, which uses historical project cost data to produce project cost estimate uplifts. WRCF uses work package-level cost deviations to overcome a limitation of RCF: the unavailability of reference data. However, WRCF has not been validated, raising concerns about the method’s reliability. This case study uses real project data from a utility company in simulated project portfolios and cross-validation to assess the validity of WRCF. The study contributes to the robustness of RCF in practice by providing empirical evidence on the performance of WRCF. Results indicate that WRCF produces more conservative cost estimates than the traditional RCF. In addition, WRCF cost estimates have a higher level of certainty than expected, potentially leading to inflated cost estimates beyond what is intended. This study emphasises the importance of practitioners selecting appropriate WRCF percentiles to avoid excessive conservatism in cost estimates and overallocation of resources. Further research is needed to assess WRCF’s validity across diverse industries and regions, providing insights for practitioners in estimating project cost uplifts.
Publications1 - 10 of 125