Jamie W McCaughey

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McCaughey

First Name

Jamie W

ORCID

0000-0003-1490-5022

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09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus

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Publications 1 - 10 of 22

Social capital and community integration in post-disaster relocation settlements after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Indonesia
Daly, Patrick; Mahdi, Saiful; Mundir, Ibnu; et al. (2023)
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
The permanent relocation of persons from areas threatened by environmental stress is widely seen within the international humanitarian sector as problematic due to negative social and economic impacts. However, relocation is increasingly seen as a likely, if unfortunate, response to climate change as rising sea-levels, changing ecological conditions, and increasingly intense disasters create powerful push factors. The more dramatic examples of environmental migration focus on long-distance movements, including crossing national borders, which raise issues about the importance of social capital for migrants trying to build community cohesion and integrate into different cultural contexts. However, it is likely that most relocation because of environment stress will occur at sub-national to very local geographic scales, similar to what happens after large-scale disasters, meaning that persons might be resettled within familiar cultural, linguistic, and religious contexts. In this paper we use qualitative data collected in 12 resettlement complexes built in Aceh, Indonesia for persons displaced by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami to analyze the importance of social capital for building cohesion within resettlement complexes and between resettlement complexes and host communities. We find that even though tsunami-affected persons were generally relocated less than 20 km from their pre-tsunami homes, there were clear social distinctions between resettled persons and host communities, which had practical impacts on integration, access to resources, and participation within local governance structures. We found shared cultural and religious traditions and social practices served as important sources of bonding capital within resettlement complexes. However, the same attributes were less effective as bridging capital between resettlement complexes and their host communities. These findings show that governments and NGOs need to be cautious about underestimating the negative social disruptions caused by short-distance relocation and the importance of bonding social capital for fostering stable and sustainable resettlement communities.
G-DIF: A geospatial data integration framework to rapidly estimate post-earthquake damage
Loos, Sabine; Lallemant, David; Baker, Jack; et al. (2020)
Earthquake Spectra
While unprecedented amounts of building damage data are now produced after earthquakes, stakeholders do not have a systematic method to synthesize and evaluate damage information, thus leaving many datasets unused. We propose a Geospatial Data Integration Framework (G-DIF) that employs regression kriging to combine a sparse sample of accurate field surveys with spatially exhaustive, though uncertain, damage data from forecasts or remote sensing. The framework can be implemented after an earthquake to produce a spatially distributed estimate of damage and, importantly, its uncertainty. An example application with real data collected after the 2015 Nepal earthquake illustrates how regression kriging can combine a diversity of datasets—and downweight uninformative sources—reflecting its ability to accommodate context-specific variations in data type and quality. Through a sensitivity analysis on the number of field surveys, we demonstrate that with only a few surveys, this method can provide more accurate results than a standard engineering forecast.
Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods
Kam, Pui Man; Aznar-Siguan, Gabriela; Schewe, Jacob; et al. (2021)
Environmental Research Letters
Every year, millions of people around the world are being displaced from their homes due to climate-related disasters. River flooding is responsible for a large part of this displacement. Previous studies have shown that river flood risk is expected to change as a result of global warming and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, future scenarios of socio-economic development imply substantial population increases in many of the areas that presently experience disaster-induced displacement. Here we show that both global warming and population change are projected to lead to substantial increases in flood-induced displacement risk over the coming decades. We use a global climate-hydrology-inundation modelling chain, including multiple alternative climate and hydrological models, to quantify the effect of global warming on displacement risk assuming either current or projected future population distributions. Keeping population fixed at present levels, we find roughly a 50% increase in global displacement risk for every degree of global warming. Adding projected population changes further exacerbates these increases globally and in most world regions, with the relative global flood displacement risk is increasing by roughly 350% at the end of the 21st century, compared to an increase of 150% without the contribution of population change. While the resolution of the global models is limited, the effect of global warming is robust across greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, climate models and hydrological models. These findings indicate a need for rapid action on both climate mitigation and adaptation agendas in order to reduce future risks to vulnerable populations.
Human amplification of secondary earthquake hazards through environmental modifications
Hill, Emma M.; McCaughey, Jamie W; Switzer, Adam D.; et al. (2024)
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Anthropogenic climate change and modification of landscapes — such as deforestation, sediment movement, irrigation and sea-level rise — can destabilize natural systems and amplify hazards from earthquake-triggered landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and coastal flooding. In this Perspective, we examine the connections and feedbacks between human environmental modifications and secondary earthquake hazards to identify steps for hazard mitigation. Destabilization of slopes by vegetation removal, agricultural activities, steepening, loading and drainage disruption can amplify landslide hazards. For example, landslides were mainly triggered on deforested slopes after the 2010 and 2021 Haiti earthquakes. Liquefaction hazards are intensified by extensive irrigation and land reclamation, as exemplified by liquefaction causing >15 m of ground displacement in irrigated areas after the 2018 Palu earthquake. Degradation or removal of primary coastal vegetation and coral reefs, destruction of sand dunes, subsidence from groundwater withdrawal, and sea-level rise can increase tsunami inland reach. Restoration of natural coastal habitats could help decrease the maximum inland reach of tsunami, but their effectiveness depends on tsunami size. Sustainable farming practices, such as mixed crop cultivation and drip irrigation, can successfully reduce the saturation of soils and the liquefaction hazard in some situations. Future research should explore the potential of such sustainable practices and nature-based solutions in reducing earthquake-related hazards, in addition to their climate and ecosystem benefits.
Rebuilding historic urban neighborhoods after disasters: Balancing disaster risk reduction and heritage conservation after the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal
Daly, Patrick; Ninglekhu, Sabin; Hollenbach, Pia; et al. (2023)
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
The 2015 Nepal earthquakes devastated the Kathmandu Valley and exposed the challenges of conserving andrestoring architectural heritage in historic urban neighborhoods damaged by disasters, while also trying to rapidly rebuild houses, revitalize livelihoods, and reduce vulnerabilities to future hazards. In this paper we use quantitative and qualitative data to investigate how traditional housing was transformed during the post-earthquake reconstruction of four historic neighborhoods in the Kathmandu Valley. We assess how traditional housing stock in these neighborhoods was transformed by a combination of the direct impact of the earthquake; the enforcement of seismic-resistant modern building technology; the costs and logistics of rebuilding; and the priorities of local residents. Our findings indicate that the enforcement of seismic safety building codes and the expense of incorporating traditional architectural elements led to notable changes to the tangible cultural heritage of Kathmandu's historic urban neighborhoods, but likely also improved seismic safety.
Insights into tectonic hazards since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami
Sarkawi, Gina M.; Feng, Lujia; McCaughey, Jamie W; et al. (2025)
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
In 2004, an earthquake of moment magnitude Mw 9.1–9.3 ruptured over 1,500 km of the Sunda megathrust under the Indian Ocean, producing a devastating tsunami and resulting in 230,000 fatalities and the displacement of nearly 1.7 million people. In this Review, we explore the lessons learned since the 2004 event, including advances in understanding Sumatran subduction-zone hazards and related disaster preparedness and risk communication. The 2004 earthquake triggered a series of aftershocks, including over 6,000 Mw ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in the first 10 years, two of which were Mw 8.6 and Mw 8.4 events, that ruptured much of the remaining Sumatran subduction interface. Ruptures of the Sumatran subduction interface are often bounded by persistent barriers associated with structural features, including fracture zones and seamounts, on the subducting oceanic plate. Although the entire plate boundary zone should always be prepared for earthquakes and tsunamis, the seismic gap in the Mentawai Islands highlights the need for enhanced preparedness in this region. The lack of tsunami early warning systems in the Indian Ocean before the 2004 tsunami prompted international efforts to help coastal populations protect themselves, which remain ongoing. Future communication efforts should ensure the public understands that no warning system is perfect, and it is safest to evacuate when there is any indication of a potential tsunami.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0
Kropf, Chahan Michael; Ciullo, Alessio; Otth, Laura; et al. (2022)
Geoscientific Model Development
Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here, we present a new feature of the climate-risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), which allows us to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology which provides decision-makers with a fact base to understand the impact of weather and climate on their economies, communities, and ecosystems, including the appraisal of bespoke adaptation options today and in future. We apply the new feature to an ECA analysis of risk from tropical cyclone storm surge to people in Vietnam to showcase the comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and sensitivity of the model outputs, such as the spatial distribution of risk exceedance probabilities or the benefits of different adaptation options. We argue that broader application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis will enhance transparency and intercomparison of studies among climate-risk modellers and help focus future research. For decision-makers and other users of climate-risk modelling, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has the potential to lead to better-informed decisions on climate adaptation. Beyond provision of uncertainty quantification, the presented approach does contextualize risk assessment and options appraisal, and might be used to inform the development of storylines and climate adaptation narratives.
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Ganti, Gaurav; Lejeune, Quentin; et al. (2024)
Nature
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
Migration and Evacuation Decisions in Response to Coastal Hazards
McCaughey, Jamie W (2018)
Informatics for Equitable Recovery: Supporting equitable disaster recovery through mapping and integration of social vulnerability into post-disaster impact assessments
Lallemant, David; Loos, Sabine; McCaughey, Jamie W; et al. (2020)
Disasters continue to present tremendous obstacles to sustained development progress and the wellbeing of communities around the world. Key to mitigating the long-term impacts of disasters is the ability to rapidly respond and recover in ways that build resilience and protect hard-fought development gains. However, the information systems needed to support such resilient and equitable recovery are currently lacking, such that decision makers often end up gathering evidence for recovery decisions in ad-hoc ways rather than systematically. This study focuses on the information and the data that influence early decision-making processes after a disaster. We call this project Informatics for Equitable Recovery because we have built frameworks for developing information systems that focus on identifying not only those who are impacted but also those who are least able to recover so that we can inform more equitable long-term recovery processes. Based on data from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we developed tools to map post-disaster building damage more accurately, making use of all the data that gets produced after a disaster. We implemented a household survey, interviews, and more to understand and usefully account for the complexities of disaster impact beyond building damage. We also developed a metric to estimate differential post-disaster need and extreme vulnerability in order to inform early decision making that fosters more effective and equitable recovery processes. We close this report with recommendations for use of the tools and ideas we share throughout.

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Jamie W McCaughey

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