Nicolas Gruber

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Gruber

First Name

Nicolas

ORCID

0000-0002-2085-2310

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03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas

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Publications 1 - 10 of 284

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
Laufkötter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; et al. (2015)
Biogeosciences
Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.
Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model
Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; et al. (2015)
Biogeosciences
he ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.
The MAREDAT global database of high performance liquid chromatography marine pigment measurements
Peloquin, Jill; Swan, Chantal M.; Gruber, Nicolas; et al. (2013)
Earth System Science Data
A global pigment database consisting of 35 634 pigment suites measured by high performance liquid chromatography was assembled in support of the MARine Ecosytem DATa (MAREDAT) initiative. These data originate from 136 field surveys within the global ocean, were solicited from investigators and databases, compiled, and then quality controlled. Nearly one quarter of the data originates from the Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), with an additional 17% and 19% stemming from the US JGOFS and LTER programs, respectively. The MAREDAT pigment database provides high quality measurements of the major taxonomic pigments including chlorophylls a and b, 19'-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin, 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin, alloxanthin, divinyl chlorophyll a, fucoxanthin, lutein, peridinin, prasinoxanthin, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin, which may be used in varying combinations to estimate phytoplankton community composition. Quality control measures consisted of flagging samples that had a total chlorophyll a concentration of zero, had fewer than four reported accessory pigments, or exceeded two standard deviations of the log-linear regression of total chlorophyll a with total accessory pigment concentrations. We anticipate the MAREDAT pigment database to be of use in the marine ecology, remote sensing and ecological modeling communities, where it will support model validation and advance our global perspective on marine biodiversity. The original dataset together with quality control flags as well as the gridded MAREDAT pigment data may be downloaded from PANGAEA: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.793246.
Biogeochemical consequences of ocean acidification and feedbacks to the earth system
Gehlen, Marion; Gruber, Nicolas; Gansto, Reidun; et al. (2011)
Ocean Acidification
Column-Compound Extremes in the Global Ocean
Wong, Joel; Münnich, Matthias; Gruber, Nicolas (2024)
AGU Advances
Marine extreme events such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidity extremes and low oxygen extremes can pose a substantial threat to marine organisms and ecosystems. Such extremes might be particularly detrimental (a) when they are compounded in more than one stressor, and (b) when the extremes extend substantially across the water column, restricting the habitable space for marine organisms. Here, we use daily output of a hindcast simulation (1961–2020) from the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model to characterize such column-compound extreme events (CCX), employing a relative threshold approach to identify extremes and requiring them to extend vertically over at least 50 m. The diagnosed CCX are prevalent, occupying worldwide in the 1960s about 1% of the volume contained within the top 300 m. Over the duration of our simulation, CCX become more intense, last longer, and occupy more volume, driven by the trends in ocean warming and ocean acidification. For example, the triple CCX expanded 39-fold, now last 3-times longer, and became 6-times more intense since the early 1960s. Removing this effect with a moving baseline permits us to better understand the key characteristics of CCX, revealing a typical duration of 10–30 days and a predominant occurrence in the Tropics and high latitudes, regions of high potential biological vulnerability. Overall, the CCX fall into 16 clusters, reflecting different patterns and drivers. Triple CCX are largely confined to the tropics and the North Pacific and tend to be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
On the role of climate modes in modulating the air–sea CO2 fluxes in eastern boundary upwelling systems
Brady, Riley X.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Alexander, Michael A.; et al. (2019)
Biogeosciences
The air–sea CO2 fluxes in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) vary strongly in time and space, with some of the highest flux densities globally. The processes controlling this variability have not yet been investigated consistently across all four major EBUSs, i.e., the California (CalCS), Humboldt (HumCS), Canary (CanCS), and Benguela (BenCS) Current systems. In this study, we diagnose the climatic modes of the air–sea CO2 flux variability in these regions between 1920 and 2015, using simulation results from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS), a global coupled climate model ensemble that is forced by historical and RCP8.5 radiative forcing. Differences between simulations can be attributed entirely to internal (unforced) climate variability, whose contribution can be diagnosed by subtracting the ensemble mean from each simulation. We find that in the CalCS and CanCS, the resulting anomalous CO2 fluxes are strongly affected by large-scale extratropical modes of variability, i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. The CalCS has anomalous uptake of CO2 during the positive phase of the NPGO, while the CanCS has anomalous outgassing of CO2 during the positive phase of the NAO. In contrast, the HumCS is mainly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with anomalous uptake of CO2 during an El Niño event. Variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) are the major contributors to these anomalous CO2 fluxes and are generally driven by changes to large-scale gyre circulation, upwelling, the mixed layer depth, and biological processes. A better understanding of the sensitivity of EBUS CO2 fluxes to modes of climate variability is key in improving our ability to predict the future evolution of the atmospheric CO2 source and sink characteristics of the four EBUSs.
Seasonal variations in the bomb radiocarbon signal from sinking particulate organic carbon in the deep Sargasso Sea
Schnepper, Charlotte; Pedrosa-Pàmies, Rut; Conte, Maureen; et al. (2023)
Sea-air CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean for the period 1990-2009
Lenton, Andrew; Tilbrook, Bronte D.; Law, Rachel M.; et al. (2013)
Biogeosciences
The Southern Ocean (44–75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea–air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea–air CO2 fluxes between 1990–2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea–air CO2 flux of −0.42 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 for the 44–75° S region, is consistent with the −0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: −0.04 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 and observations: +0.04 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44 to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: −0.36 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1 and observations: −0.35 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1). Seasonally, in the 44–58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea–air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and amplitude of the observed seasonal sea–air CO2 flux, particularly in the Austral Winter. Importantly, no individual atmospheric inversion or ocean biogeochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean; up to 25% of the annual mean flux, with 25% of this interannual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Resolving long-term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990–2009) of this study; this is particularly evident from the large spread in trends from inversions and ocean biogeochemical models. Nevertheless, in the period 1990–2009 ocean biogeochemical models do show increasing oceanic uptake consistent with the expected increase of −0.05 Pg C yr−1 decade−1. In contrast, atmospheric inversions suggest little change in the strength of the CO2 sink broadly consistent with the results of Le Quéré et al. (2007).
Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends
Haumann, Alexander; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; et al. (2016)
Nature
Drivers of Southern Ocean Heat and Carbon Storage Patterns: Role of surface boundary conditions
Hague, Mark; Münnich, Matthias; Gruber, Nicolas (2021)

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Nicolas Gruber

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