Allister Loder

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Loder

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Allister

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0000-0003-3102-6564

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Publications1 - 10 of 15

Mode choice behavior in a tradable mobility credit scheme
Álvarez-Ossorio Martínez, Santiago; Schatzman, Thomas; Loder, Allister; et al. (2025)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Tradable Mobility Credit (TMC) schemes are considered a promising policy instrument to mitigate the production of transport externalities while enhancing equity and preserving social acceptance. Nevertheless, research lacks a disaggregated analysis of their potential impacts on mode choice, while the empirical user behavior has remained largely unstudied. We address this gap by presenting the results of the first large-scale stated-preference (SP) experiment examining the complex trade-offs between travel time, internal and external travel costs, and other level-of-service attributes in a multimodal TMC scheme. Using multinomial logit models, we derive the value of travel time (VTT) and the own- and cross-elasticities under such a scheme to discuss policy implications. Our results confirm the potential of TMC to reduce car usage; despite its complexity, citizens understand the concept of TMCs and make decisions according to the underlying economic theory of TMC. Furthermore, the modeling results suggest the presence of different behavioral effects: loss aversion, and the budget depletion and period effects, which modulate the sensitivity to the credit charges. Our findings and the VTT and elasticity estimates are informative to improve behavioral modeling in future research on TMC schemes. Interestingly, we find that a traditional road user charging scheme would require a 77% tax on the car trips’ internal costs for a comparative modal share impact. Hence, our results support the notion that TMC schemes are promising policy instruments for achieving sustainability goals.
Optimal pricing and investment in a multi-modal city
Loder, Allister; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Axhausen, Kay W. (2022)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Improving the performance of an existing transportation system is a challenge for engineers and policy makers as many dimensions and system design variables are interacting. In this paper, we propose the three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram network design problem (3D-MFD-NDP). It is a strategic macroscopic tool to identify the directions of decision making in a multimodal transportation system, where the provision of roads and public transport services are interacting with costs for cars and public transport services in the performance of the entire road surface transportation system. The 3D-MFD-NDP models their effects aggregated at the network level and does not locate all measures to the road network. The objective function of the introduced 3D-MFD-NDP is minimizing the total travel time, while the design variables of the problem are the user costs for cars and bus tickets, the bus headway, the share of dedicated bus lanes and the length of the road network. The advantage of the 3D-MFD-NDP compared to existing approaches is that it is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) that allows a fast closed-form solution instead of being simulation-based, usually computing many details not required in strategic decision making. We apply the 3D-MFD-NDP to the greater area of Zurich to study two different problems. First, we investigate how the current network performance can be increased by pricing and investment measures. Despite difficulties in identifying reliable cost information for the provision of roads, we find that substantial travel time savings are possible, especially when limiting car use by restricting its space and increasing its costs. Second, we investigate the response to a 20% population growth in urban and suburban regions with car and public transport prices as well as bus frequency as the free design variables. We find that the system can accommodate the population growth, but as the system costs are shared among more users, the costs per trip are lessened, which attenuates the steering effect of prices.
Understanding traffic capacity of urban networks
Loder, Allister; Ambühl, Lukas; Menendez, Monica; et al. (2019)
Scientific Reports
Traffic in an urban network becomes congested once there is a critical number of vehicles in the network. To improve traffic operations, develop new congestion mitigation strategies, and reduce negative traffic externalities, understanding the basic laws governing the network’s critical number of vehicles and the network’s traffic capacity is necessary. However, until now, a holistic understanding of this critical point and an empirical quantification of its driving factors has been missing. Here we show with billions of vehicle observations from more than 40 cities, how road and bus network topology explains around 90% of the empirically observed critical point variation, making it therefore predictable. Importantly, we find a sublinear relationship between network size and critical accumulation emphasizing decreasing marginal returns of infrastructure investment. As transportation networks are the lifeline of our cities, our findings have profound implications on how to build and operate our cities more efficiently.
Approximative network partitioning for MFDs from stationary sensor data
Ambühl, Lukas; Loder, Allister; Zheng, Nan; et al. (2018)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Disentangling the city traffic rhythms
Ambühl, Lukas; Loder, Allister; Leclercq, Ludovic; et al. (2021)
Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
Urban road transportation performance is the result of a complex interplay between the network supply and the travel demand. Fortunately, the framework around the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) provides an efficient description of network-wide traffic performance. In this paper, we show how temporal patterns of vehicle traffic define the performance of urban road networks. We present two high-resolution traffic datasets covering a year each. We introduce a methodology to quantify the similarity of macroscopic traffic patterns. We do so by using the concepts of the MFD and a dynamic time warping (DTW) based algorithm for time series. This allows us to derive a few representative MFD clusters that capture the essential macroscopic traffic patterns. We then provide an in-depth analysis of traffic heterogeneity in the network which is indicative of the previously found clusters. Thereupon, we define a parsimonious classification approach to predict the expected MFD clusters early in the morning with high accuracy.
Design of a multi-modal transportation system to support the urban agglomeration process
Loder, Allister; Schreiber, Andrew; Rutherford, Thomas F.; et al. (2021)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Improvements to urban transportation systems are designed to reduce travel times, but can also facilitate additional productivity gains through agglomeration. These systems, however, are complex, making it difficult to identify and quantify the mechanisms that improve economic productivity. In this paper we propose a quantitative urban spatial equilibrium model with simple urban structure that incorporates endogenous agglomeration and multi-modal congestion to study the transportation policy effects of investment and pricing on economic productivity. The model features a novel traffic flow modelling tool called the multi-modal macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). This modelling tool allows us to account for effects of network topology and multi-modal traffic operations in the macroscopic modelling of congestion. We use the model to show how policy decisions regarding investment in the public transport system and the pricing of two modes of transport (cars and buses) influence economic sorting and thus urban productivity in the greater Zürich metropolitan area.
MobilityCoins
Hamm, Lisa S.; Weikl, Simone; Loder, Allister; et al. (2023)
Tradable Credit Schemes recently gained more popularity in the literature on travel demand and congestion management. The basic principle of TCS is a cap-and-trade system that incorporates the rationing of infrastructure use rights to internalize the external costs of transportation. However, there is a lack of empirical research regarding user behavior and user preferences in such schemes. This paper builds on the idea to use TCS not only as an alternative for congestion charging, but also for providing incentives for sustainable transportation choices. In this paper, we present first empirical findings on the user-oriented system design of such a scheme, the MobilityCoin system. These findings are based on fifteen expert interviews and pre-test results of a stated preference survey on mode choice and trading behavior. We specifically look at system elements in which user preferences and user characteristics may play a role in making such a scheme a success: credit allocation, market regulation, trading behavior (willingess-to-sell, willingess-to-pay) and user effort caused by the system. Our findings are that experts support the concept of MobilityCoins and of individual credit allocation based on different user-related parameters, but appeal to put emphasis on the right implementation, low user effort and a fair TCS market regulation. Survey respondents understand the system idea, clearly react to stimuli by showing a mode shift compared to the status quo and would trade MobilityCoins reasonably.
Nutzungen, Strukturen und Verkehr
Axhausen, Kay W.; Loder, Allister (2021)
Stadtverkehrsplanung Band 2: Analyse, Prognose und Bewertung
Das Kapitel gibt einen Überblick über das Verkehrsverhalten in industrialisierten Ländern, im wesentlichen mit Zahlen aus der Schweiz und Deutschland. Die zentralen Aspekte sind die Verteilungen der Anzahl der Fahrten/Wege, deren Verkehrsmittelwahl, Längen und Dauern. Die Fernreisen, die die Verkehrsleistung dominieren, werden aus weiteren Datenquellen heraus dargestellt. Es wird klar, dass die alltäglichen Entscheidungen der Verkehrsteilnehmer im wesentlichen von ihren langfristigen Entscheidungen zu Wohnort, Arbeitsplatz und Mobilitätswerkzeugbesitz abhängen, da so die generalisierten Kosten ihrer Bewegungen praktisch festgeschrieben sind. Die Zeitwerte und Elastizitäten geben weitere Anhaltspunkte für die möglichen Verhaltensänderungen. Um sicherzustellen, dass die Zahlen vergleichbar sind, diskutiert das Kapitel die notwendigen Definitionen für die Erfassung der Bewegungen: Etappe, Weg, Tour, Reise, Ausgang. Das Kapitel zeigt auch, dass die Erfassung der Wege problematisch ist, da jede Methode ihre spezifischen Probleme hat: Unterschiede in den Grundgesamtheiten, Verzerrungen der Antworterstichprobe, technische Untererfassung bei GSM/GPS, Vergessen und Verweigerung bei Fragebögen aller Art.
Wie viel Verkehr für eine Stadt? Ein makroskopischer Ansatz
Loder, Allister; Ambühl, Lukas; Axhausen, Kay W. (2020)
Strassenverkehrstechnik
Der Ansatz des makroskopischen Fundamentaldiagramms (MFD) erlaubt die Bestimmung der Kapazität eines gesamten städtischen Strassennetzes und nicht nur die Kapazität einzelner Netzelemente. In diesem Beitrag wird neben einer Einführung in das MFD im ersten Teil darauf eingegangen, wie die Kapazität eines Netzes quantitativ bestimmt werden kann und welchen Einfluss die Netzstruktur auf die Kapazität hat. Im zweiten Teil wird zuerst beschrieben, wie das MFD zum multimodalen MFD erweitert wird, welches die Wechselwirkungen zwischen verschiedenen Fahrzeugtypen, z. B. Pkw und Bus, beschreibt. Auf Basis des multimodalen MFDs werden dann Ansätze zusammengefasst, mit denen die Aufteilung der Netzressourcen zwischen Verkehrsmitteln für den grösstmöglichen Durchsatz an Fahrzeugen oder Passagieren analysiert werden kann.
Optimal pricing and investment in a multi-modal city
Loder, Allister; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Axhausen, Kay W. (2019)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
The three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram (3D-MFD) is a physically consistent functional relationship between the accumulation of buses and cars and each modes average speed in an urban network that captures interactions among vehicles. The 3D-MFD network design problem (3D-MFD-NDP) builds upon advances in 3D-MFD estimation that explicitly link design variables of urban transportation networks to the shape of the 3D-MFD. This advancement allows to study investment effects in urban transport networks directly without separate traffic simulations. The 3D-MFD-NDP aims to find the optimal investment in transport network infrastructure and pricing such that the behavioral response minimizes total travel time and system subsidy. Mathematically, the 3D-MFD-NDP is a bi-level optimization problem formulated as a mathematical problem with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). At the upper level, the design variables are road network length, bus service frequency, share of dedicated bus lanes, car and bus prices and the system’s subsidy. At the lower level, traffic distributes across modes and routes following Wardrop’s equilibrium principle. The 3D-MFD-NDP is applied to greater Zurich to study the effects of urban scale pricing and investment.

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