Allister Loder

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Loder

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Allister

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0000-0003-3102-6564

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Publications 1 - 10 of 15

Optimal pricing and investment in a multi-modal city
Loder, Allister; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Axhausen, Kay W. (2022)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Improving the performance of an existing transportation system is a challenge for engineers and policy makers as many dimensions and system design variables are interacting. In this paper, we propose the three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram network design problem (3D-MFD-NDP). It is a strategic macroscopic tool to identify the directions of decision making in a multimodal transportation system, where the provision of roads and public transport services are interacting with costs for cars and public transport services in the performance of the entire road surface transportation system. The 3D-MFD-NDP models their effects aggregated at the network level and does not locate all measures to the road network. The objective function of the introduced 3D-MFD-NDP is minimizing the total travel time, while the design variables of the problem are the user costs for cars and bus tickets, the bus headway, the share of dedicated bus lanes and the length of the road network. The advantage of the 3D-MFD-NDP compared to existing approaches is that it is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) that allows a fast closed-form solution instead of being simulation-based, usually computing many details not required in strategic decision making. We apply the 3D-MFD-NDP to the greater area of Zurich to study two different problems. First, we investigate how the current network performance can be increased by pricing and investment measures. Despite difficulties in identifying reliable cost information for the provision of roads, we find that substantial travel time savings are possible, especially when limiting car use by restricting its space and increasing its costs. Second, we investigate the response to a 20% population growth in urban and suburban regions with car and public transport prices as well as bus frequency as the free design variables. We find that the system can accommodate the population growth, but as the system costs are shared among more users, the costs per trip are lessened, which attenuates the steering effect of prices.
Modeling interactions of cars and freight vehicles in urban areas for speed and travel time prediction
Loder, Allister; Otte, Thomas (2020)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
The prediction of journey speeds is important for decision making - not only for travelers, but also for businesses such as urban freight companies. Journey speed is total travel distance divided by total travel time, including all delays and additional stopping times. So far, methodologies to model these interactions between cars and urban freight vehicles at an aggregated level have not yet received much attention, although the demand for urban freight is growing. However, these methodologies are required to identify solutions for optimal management and regulation of urban freight. This paper proposes a novel approach to model the interactions between cars and urban freight vehicles for journey speed prediction in urban areas based on the multi-modal macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). To ensure transferability to many applications, we formulate the model in a generic way. We apply the proposed model to an synthetic network with parameters oriented towards European cities to illustrate the model’s applicability and discuss trade-offs in regulation of urban freight. As data related to (urban) freight movements (e.g., route planning and load factors) are currently often treated as private resources by involved freight companies, our generic model also provides a foundation to integrate actual freight data as soon as they are available for cities as a consequence from the ongoing, continuous digital transformation. Thus, the new approach not only helps cities on deriving urban freight strategies to optimize the overall traffic in the network, but also helps businesses to make better decisions.
Wie viel Verkehr für eine Stadt? Ein makroskopischer Ansatz
Loder, Allister; Ambühl, Lukas; Axhausen, Kay W. (2020)
Strassenverkehrstechnik
Der Ansatz des makroskopischen Fundamentaldiagramms (MFD) erlaubt die Bestimmung der Kapazität eines gesamten städtischen Strassennetzes und nicht nur die Kapazität einzelner Netzelemente. In diesem Beitrag wird neben einer Einführung in das MFD im ersten Teil darauf eingegangen, wie die Kapazität eines Netzes quantitativ bestimmt werden kann und welchen Einfluss die Netzstruktur auf die Kapazität hat. Im zweiten Teil wird zuerst beschrieben, wie das MFD zum multimodalen MFD erweitert wird, welches die Wechselwirkungen zwischen verschiedenen Fahrzeugtypen, z. B. Pkw und Bus, beschreibt. Auf Basis des multimodalen MFDs werden dann Ansätze zusammengefasst, mit denen die Aufteilung der Netzressourcen zwischen Verkehrsmitteln für den grösstmöglichen Durchsatz an Fahrzeugen oder Passagieren analysiert werden kann.
Modeling Swiss mobility tool ownership
Becker, Henrik; Loder, Allister; Schmid, Basil; et al. (2017)
Ownership of mobility tools such as cars, season tickets or car-sharing memberships is a strong determinant of a person’s short-term travel behaviour. But despite their important role, the interrelations between the three mobility tools are not yet fully understood. Whilst the backgrounds of car-ownership and season-ticket ownership and their interdependencies have already been subject to various quantitative studies, the motives for and impacts of car-sharing membership are less clear: Although the literature consistently suggests, that car-sharing reduces its members’ level of car-ownership and use, only few papers have addressed these questions using quantitative methods.
Investigating mode choice preferences in a tradable mobility credit scheme
Schatzmann, Thomas; Álvarez-Ossorio Martínez, Santiago; Loder, Allister; et al. (2023)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Tradable Credit Schemes (TCS) are gathering increasing attention in the transportation sector as an alternative to traditional pricing measures. TCS could foster the shift to more sustainable modes and limit the production of negative externalities while promoting social justice and equity. Current research has a strong focus on modeling market equilibrium prices, charging designs, social acceptance, and equity aspects. However, most modeling approaches have to make assumptions about user preferences due to a lack of empirical evidence on user’s behavior in such a system. This paper presents the results of a stated mode choice experiment with over 1,000 participants conducted in Munich, Germany, to examine the trade-offs between travel time, private and external travel costs, and other level-of-service attributes within a TCS. A Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) model applied to the data collected revealed three main findings. First, the results confirm that the participants seem to understand the complexity of TCS and behave rationally. Secondly, respondents reacted more sensitively to credit charges the smaller their monthly remaining credit budget was and the more days of the month were left. Finally, the variance of the associated values of travel times was found to be largest for cars, indicating higher values and hence greater discomfort when considering their imposed external costs. To conclude, this paper sheds light on mode choice preferences in the context of a hypothetical TCS and suggests directions for future research.
Optimal pricing and investment in a multi-modal city
Loder, Allister; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Axhausen, Kay W. (2019)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
The three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram (3D-MFD) is a physically consistent functional relationship between the accumulation of buses and cars and each modes average speed in an urban network that captures interactions among vehicles. The 3D-MFD network design problem (3D-MFD-NDP) builds upon advances in 3D-MFD estimation that explicitly link design variables of urban transportation networks to the shape of the 3D-MFD. This advancement allows to study investment effects in urban transport networks directly without separate traffic simulations. The 3D-MFD-NDP aims to find the optimal investment in transport network infrastructure and pricing such that the behavioral response minimizes total travel time and system subsidy. Mathematically, the 3D-MFD-NDP is a bi-level optimization problem formulated as a mathematical problem with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). At the upper level, the design variables are road network length, bus service frequency, share of dedicated bus lanes, car and bus prices and the system’s subsidy. At the lower level, traffic distributes across modes and routes following Wardrop’s equilibrium principle. The 3D-MFD-NDP is applied to greater Zurich to study the effects of urban scale pricing and investment.
MobilityCoins
Hamm, Lisa S.; Weikl, Simone; Loder, Allister; et al. (2023)
Tradable Credit Schemes recently gained more popularity in the literature on travel demand and congestion management. The basic principle of TCS is a cap-and-trade system that incorporates the rationing of infrastructure use rights to internalize the external costs of transportation. However, there is a lack of empirical research regarding user behavior and user preferences in such schemes. This paper builds on the idea to use TCS not only as an alternative for congestion charging, but also for providing incentives for sustainable transportation choices. In this paper, we present first empirical findings on the user-oriented system design of such a scheme, the MobilityCoin system. These findings are based on fifteen expert interviews and pre-test results of a stated preference survey on mode choice and trading behavior. We specifically look at system elements in which user preferences and user characteristics may play a role in making such a scheme a success: credit allocation, market regulation, trading behavior (willingess-to-sell, willingess-to-pay) and user effort caused by the system. Our findings are that experts support the concept of MobilityCoins and of individual credit allocation based on different user-related parameters, but appeal to put emphasis on the right implementation, low user effort and a fair TCS market regulation. Survey respondents understand the system idea, clearly react to stimuli by showing a mode shift compared to the status quo and would trade MobilityCoins reasonably.
Mode choice behavior in a tradable mobility credit scheme
Álvarez-Ossorio Martínez, Santiago; Schatzman, Thomas; Loder, Allister; et al. (2025)
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Tradable Mobility Credit (TMC) schemes are considered a promising policy instrument to mitigate the production of transport externalities while enhancing equity and preserving social acceptance. Nevertheless, research lacks a disaggregated analysis of their potential impacts on mode choice, while the empirical user behavior has remained largely unstudied. We address this gap by presenting the results of the first large-scale stated-preference (SP) experiment examining the complex trade-offs between travel time, internal and external travel costs, and other level-of-service attributes in a multimodal TMC scheme. Using multinomial logit models, we derive the value of travel time (VTT) and the own- and cross-elasticities under such a scheme to discuss policy implications. Our results confirm the potential of TMC to reduce car usage; despite its complexity, citizens understand the concept of TMCs and make decisions according to the underlying economic theory of TMC. Furthermore, the modeling results suggest the presence of different behavioral effects: loss aversion, and the budget depletion and period effects, which modulate the sensitivity to the credit charges. Our findings and the VTT and elasticity estimates are informative to improve behavioral modeling in future research on TMC schemes. Interestingly, we find that a traditional road user charging scheme would require a 77% tax on the car trips’ internal costs for a comparative modal share impact. Hence, our results support the notion that TMC schemes are promising policy instruments for achieving sustainability goals.
Design of a multi-modal transportation system to support the urban agglomeration process
Loder, Allister; Schreiber, Andrew; Rutherford, Thomas F.; et al. (2021)
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Improvements to urban transportation systems are designed to reduce travel times, but can also facilitate additional productivity gains through agglomeration. These systems, however, are complex, making it difficult to identify and quantify the mechanisms that improve economic productivity. In this paper we propose a quantitative urban spatial equilibrium model with simple urban structure that incorporates endogenous agglomeration and multi-modal congestion to study the transportation policy effects of investment and pricing on economic productivity. The model features a novel traffic flow modelling tool called the multi-modal macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). This modelling tool allows us to account for effects of network topology and multi-modal traffic operations in the macroscopic modelling of congestion. We use the model to show how policy decisions regarding investment in the public transport system and the pricing of two modes of transport (cars and buses) influence economic sorting and thus urban productivity in the greater Zürich metropolitan area.
Understanding traffic capacity of urban networks
Loder, Allister; Ambühl, Lukas; Menendez, Monica; et al. (2019)
Scientific Reports
Traffic in an urban network becomes congested once there is a critical number of vehicles in the network. To improve traffic operations, develop new congestion mitigation strategies, and reduce negative traffic externalities, understanding the basic laws governing the network’s critical number of vehicles and the network’s traffic capacity is necessary. However, until now, a holistic understanding of this critical point and an empirical quantification of its driving factors has been missing. Here we show with billions of vehicle observations from more than 40 cities, how road and bus network topology explains around 90% of the empirically observed critical point variation, making it therefore predictable. Importantly, we find a sublinear relationship between network size and critical accumulation emphasizing decreasing marginal returns of infrastructure investment. As transportation networks are the lifeline of our cities, our findings have profound implications on how to build and operate our cities more efficiently.

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