Lorenzo Rosa

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Rosa

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Lorenzo

ORCID

0000-0002-1280-9945

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Publications1 - 10 of 15

Energy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition
Rosa, Lorenzo; Rulli, Maria C.; Ali, Saleem; et al. (2021)
Nature Communications
The ongoing agrarian transition from small-holder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture is reshaping systems of production and human well-being in many regions. A fundamental part of this global transition is manifested in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) by agribusinesses. Its energy implications, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the multi-dimensional changes in fossil-fuel-based energy demand resulting from this agrarian transition. We focus on LSLAs by comparing two scenarios of low-input and high-input agricultural practices, exemplifying systems of production in place before and after the agrarian transition. A shift to high-input crop production requires industrial fertilizer application, mechanization of farming practices and irrigation, which increases by ~5 times fossil-fuel-based energy consumption compared to low-input agriculture. Given the high energy and carbon footprints of LSLAs and concerns over local energy access, our analysis highlights the need for an approach that prioritizes local resource access and incorporates energy-intensity analyses in land use governance.
Cost-competitive decentralized ammonia fertilizer production can increase food security
Tonelli, Davide; Rosa, Lorenzo; Gabrielli, Paolo; et al. (2024)
Nature Food
The current centralized configuration of the ammonia industry makes the production of nitrogen fertilizers susceptible to the volatility of fossil fuel prices and involves complex supply chains with long-distance transport costs. An alternative consists of on-site decentralized ammonia production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber-Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction. Here we evaluate the cost-competitiveness of producing low-carbon ammonia at the farm scale, from a solar agrivoltaic system, or using electricity from the grid, within a novel global fertilizer industry. Projected costs for decentralized ammonia production are compared with historical market prices from centralized production. We find that the cost-competitiveness of decentralized production relies on transport costs and supply chain disruptions. Taking both factors into account, decentralized production could achieve cost-competitiveness for up to 96% of the global ammonia demand by 2030. These results show the potential of decentralized ammonia technologies in revolutionizing the fertilizer industry, particularly in regions facing food insecurity.
Values-Based Scenarios of Water Security: Rights to Water, Rights of Waters, and Commercial Water Rights
Jenkins, Willis; Rosa, Lorenzo; Schmidt, Jeremy; et al. (2021)
BioScience
Although a wide body of scholarly research recognizes multiple kinds of values for water, water security assessments typically employ just some of them. In the present article, we integrate value scenarios into a planetary water security model to incorporate multiple water-related social values and illustrate trade-offs among them. Specifically, we incorporate cultural values for environmental flows needed to sustain ecosystem function (rights of waters), the water requirements of a human right to food (rights to water), and the economic value of water to commercial enterprise (commercial water rights). Pairing quantitative hydrological modeling with qualitative systems of valuing, we suggest how to depict the available water for realizing various combinations of the values underlying those rights. We account for population growth and dietary choices associated with different socioeconomic pathways. This pluralist approach incorporates multiple kinds of values into a water security framework, to better recognize and work with diversity in cultural valuation of water.
Global land and water limits to electrolytic hydrogen production using wind and solar resources
Tonelli, Davide; Rosa, Lorenzo; Gabrielli, Paolo; et al. (2023)
Nature Communications
Proposals for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 include scaling-up electrolytic hydrogen production, however, this poses technical, economic, and environmental challenges. One such challenge is for policymakers to ensure a sustainable future for the environment including freshwater and land resources while facilitating low-carbon hydrogen production using renewable wind and solar energy. We establish a country-by-country reference scenario for hydrogen demand in 2050 and compare it with land and water availability. Our analysis highlights countries that will be constrained by domestic natural resources to achieve electrolytic hydrogen self-sufficiency in a net-zero target. Depending on land allocation for the installation of solar panels or wind turbines, less than 50% of hydrogen demand in 2050 could be met through a local production without land or water scarcity. Our findings identify potential importers and exporters of hydrogen or, conversely, exporters or importers of industries that would rely on electrolytic hydrogen. The abundance of land and water resources in Southern and Central-East Africa, West Africa, South America, Canada, and Australia make these countries potential leaders in hydrogen export.
Achieving net-zero emissions in agriculture: a review
Rosa, Lorenzo; Gabrielli, Paolo (2023)
Environmental Research Letters
Agriculture accounts for 12% of global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (7.1 Gt CO2 equivalent), primarily through non-CO2 emissions, namely methane (54%), nitrous oxide (28%), and carbon dioxide (18%). Thus, agriculture contributes significantly to climate change and is significantly impacted by its consequences. Here, we present a review of technologies and innovations for reducing GHG emissions in agriculture. These include decarbonizing on-farm energy use, adopting nitrogen fertilizers management technologies, alternative rice cultivation methods, and feeding and breeding technologies for reducing enteric methane. Combined, all these measures can reduce agricultural GHG emissions by up to 45%. However, residual emissions of 3.8 Gt CO2 equivalent per year will require offsets from carbon dioxide removal technologies to make agriculture net-zero. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and enhanced rock weathering are particularly promising techniques, as they can be implemented within agriculture and result in permanent carbon sequestration. While net-zero technologies are technically available, they come with a price premium over the status quo and have limited adoption. Further research and development are needed to make such technologies more affordable and scalable and understand their synergies and wider socio-environmental impacts. With support and incentives, agriculture can transition from a significant emitter to a carbon sink. This study may serve as a blueprint to identify areas where further research and investments are needed to support and accelerate a transition to net-zero emissions agriculture.
Optimal Combination of Net-Zero Pathways for Minimum Energy, Land, and Water Consumption in Chemical Production
Gabrielli, Paolo; Goericke, Hanne; Rosa, Lorenzo (2024)
Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research
Net-zero chemical production can be achieved through electrification, biomass-based processes, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage. However, these net-zero pathways require more resources than business-as-usual processes. One possibility to produce net-zero chemicals at a lower resource consumption is the combination of net-zero pathways based on locally available resources. This study determines the optimal combinations of net-zero pathways for producing chemicals with net-zero emissions that minimize the use of renewable energy, land, and water while complying with local waste biomass and CO2 storage availability. Waste biomass is defined as residue biomass that does not compete for land and water with other sectors. The analysis is performed worldwide at the country level and considers the production of ammonia, methanol, and plastics, which, when combined, account for similar to 5% of the global CO2 emissions. Findings show that, when considering net-zero pathways individually, waste biomass is preferably used for producing ammonia and methanol, whereas carbon capture and storage is preferably deployed for plastics production. At the same time, a mixed strategy using carbon capture, utilization, and storage, and waste biomass, allows one to achieve a net-zero chemical industry with a nearly 60% reduction in energy consumption and 90% reduction in land and water consumption, with respect to single-pathway strategies. Finally, we find that adopting a net-zero portfolio that minimizes water allows water consumption to be reduced by more than 90% and land consumption to be reduced by more than 70% at the cost of an energy increase of only 5%, when compared to the minimum-energy portfolio.
Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 degrees C warmer climate
Rosa, Lorenzo; Chiarelli, Davide D.; Sangiorgio, Matteo; et al. (2020)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion andmay guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The water footprint of carbon capture and storage technologies
Rosa, Lorenzo; Sanchez, Daniel L.; Realmonte, Giulia; et al. (2021)
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is an important technology to reduce fossil CO2 emissions and remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Scenarios for CCS deployment consistent with global climate goals involve gigatonne-scale deployment of CCS within the next several decades. CCS technologies typically involve large water consumption during their energy-intensive capture process. Despite potential concerns, the water footprint of large-scale CCS adoption consistent with stringent climate change mitigation has not yet been explored. This study presents the water footprints (m(3) water per tonne CO2 captured) of four prominent CCS technologies: Post-combustion CCS, Pre-combustion CCS, Direct Air CCS, and Bioenergy with CCS. Depending on technology, the water footprint of CCS ranges from 0.74 to 575 m(3) H2O/tonne CO2. Bioenergy with CCS is the technology that has the highest water footprint per tonne CO2 captured, largely due to the high water requirements associated with transpiration. The widespread deployment of CCS to meet the 1.5 degrees C climate target would almost double anthropogenic water footprint. Consequently, this would likely exacerbate and create green and blue water scarcity conditions in many regions worldwide. Climate mitigation scenarios with a diversified portfolio of CCS technologies have lower impacts on water resources than scenarios relying mainly on one of them. The water footprint assessment of CCS is a crucial factor in evaluating these technologies. Water-scarce regions should prioritize water-efficient CCS technologies in their mitigation goals. In conclusion, the most water-efficient way to stabilize the Earth's climate is to rapidly decarbonize our energy systems and improve energy efficiency.
Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations
Zhang, Xin; Yao, Guolin; Vishwakarma, Srishti; et al. (2021)
One Earth
Agriculture is fundamental to all three pillars of sustainability, environment, society, and economy. However, the definition of sustainable agriculture and the capacities to measure it remain elusive. Independent and transparent measurements of national sustainability are needed to gauge progress, encourage accountability, and inform policy. Here, we developed a Sustainable Agriculture Matrix (SAM) to quantify national performance indicators in agriculture and to investigate the trade-offs and synergies based on historical data for most countries of the world. The results reveal priority areas for improvement by each country and show that the trade-offs and synergies among indicators often differ. Exceptions to common economic-versus-environmental trade-offs, for example, offer opportunities to learn from countries with synergistic pathways for multiple sustainability indicators. These SAM indicators will improve as data become more available, but this version offers a useful starting point for evaluating progress, identifying priorities for improvement, and informing national policies and actions toward sustainable agriculture.
Life cycle assessment of carbon dioxide removal technologies: A critical review
Terlouw, Tom; Bauer, Christian; Rosa, Lorenzo; et al. (2021)
Energy & Environmental Science
A large number of prospective climate scenarios rely on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies to limit global warming below 2 °C. To date, however, a comprehensive understanding of the overall life-cycle environmental impacts of CDR technologies is missing. We present a critical review on conducted Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of a comprehensive set of CDR technologies: afforestation and reforestation, biochar, soil carbon sequestration, enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air carbon capture and storage. One of the key observations is that emissions avoided due to substitution of certain processes (due to system expansion in LCA) can be easily misinterpreted as negative emissions, i.e. as carbon removal from the atmosphere. Based on the observed inconsistencies and shortcomings, we recommend to interpret available CDR LCA results with caution. To improve the understanding of environmental implications of CDR deployment, we recommend (1) to conduct LCAs with multiple environmental impact categories, (2) to consider the temporal aspect of emissions in biomass-related CDR technologies, (3) to focus on so far overlooked CDR technologies, (4) to be as transparent as possible regarding methodological choices, (5) to capture environmental side-effects, and (6) to distinguish between ‘avoided emissions’ and ‘negative emissions’ – only negative emissions correspond to permanent removal from the atmosphere. We conclude that more comprehensive and rigorous LCAs are needed to help inform the design of CDR technology portfolios and to aid in anticipatory governance.

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