Clemens Schwingshackl

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Schwingshackl

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Clemens

ORCID

0000-0003-4048-3011

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Publications 1 - 10 of 10

Global Contributions of Incoming Radiation and Land Surface Conditions to Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature Variability and Trend
Schwingshackl, Clemens; Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I. (2018)
Geophysical Research Letters
The evolution of near‐surface air temperature is influenced by various dynamical, radiative, and surface‐atmosphere exchange processes whose contributions are still not completely quantified. Applying stepwise multiple linear regression to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and focusing on radiation (diagnosed by incoming shortwave and incoming longwave radiation) and land surface conditions (diagnosed by soil moisture and albedo) about 79% of the interannual variability and 99% of the multidecadal trend of monthly mean daily maximum temperature over land can be explained. The linear model captures well the temperature variability in middle‐to‐high latitudes and in regions close to the equator, whereas its explanatory potential is limited in deserts. While radiation is an essential explanatory variable over almost all of the analyzed domain, land surface conditions show a pronounced relation to temperature in some confined regions. These findings highlight that considering local‐to‐regional processes is crucial for correctly assessing interannual temperature variability and future temperature trends.
Global Carbon Budget 2022
Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; et al. (2022)
Earth System Science Data
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
A theoretical approach to assess soil moisture-climate coupling across CMIP5 and GLACE-CMIP5 experiments
Schwingshackl, Clemens; Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I. (2018)
Earth System Dynamics
Terrestrial climate is influenced by various land–atmosphere interactions that involve numerous land surface state variables. In several regions on Earth, soil moisture plays an important role for climate via its control on the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes; consequently, soil moisture also impacts on temperature and precipitation. The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment–Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5) aims to quantify the impact of soil moisture on these important climate variables and to trace the individual coupling mechanisms. GLACE-CMIP5 provides experiments with different soil moisture prescriptions that can be used to isolate the effect of soil moisture on climate. Using a theoretical framework that relies on the distinct relation of soil moisture with evaporative fraction (the ratio of latent heat flux over net radiation) in different soil moisture regimes, the climate impact of the soil moisture prescriptions in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments can be emulated and quantified. The framework-based estimation of the soil moisture effect on the evaporative fraction agrees very well with estimations obtained directly from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (pattern correlation of 0.85). Moreover, the soil moisture effect on the daily maximum temperature is well captured in regions where soil moisture exerts a strong control on latent heat fluxes. The theoretical approach is further applied to quantify the soil moisture contribution to the projected change of the temperature on the hottest day of the year, confirming recent estimations by other studies. Finally, GLACE-style soil moisture prescriptions are emulated in an extended set of CMIP5 models. The results indicate consistency between the soil moisture–climate coupling strength estimated with the GLACE-CMIP5 and the CMIP5 models. Although the theoretical approach is only designed to capture the local soil moisture–climate coupling strength, it can also help to distinguish non-local from local soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks where sensitivity experiments (such as GLACE-CMIP5) are available. Overall, the theoretical framework-based approach presented here constitutes a simple and powerful tool to quantify local soil moisture–climate coupling in both the GLACE-CMIP5 and CMIP5 models that can be applied in the absence of dedicated sensitivity experiments.
Global Carbon Budget 2023
Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; et al. (2023)
Earth System Science Data
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO₂ products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr⁻¹ (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr⁻¹, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr⁻¹ (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr⁻¹ (2.18±0.1 ppm yr⁻¹; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr⁻¹, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr⁻¹ (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).
A process-based 222radon flux map for Europe and its comparison to long-term observations
Karstens, Ute; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Schmithüsen, Dominik; et al. (2015)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Detailed 222radon (222Rn) flux maps are an essential pre-requisite for the use of radon in atmospheric transport studies. Here we present a high-resolution 222Rn flux map for Europe, based on a parameterization of 222Rn production and transport in the soil. The 222Rn exhalation rate is parameterized based on soil properties, uranium content, and modelled soil moisture from two different land-surface reanalysis data sets. Spatial variations in exhalation rates are primarily determined by the uranium content of the soil, but also influenced by soil texture and local water-table depth. Temporal variations are related to soil moisture variations as the molecular diffusion in the unsaturated soil zone depends on available air-filled pore space. The implemented diffusion parameterization was tested against campaign-based 222Rn soil profile measurements. Monthly 222Rn exhalation rates from European soils were calculated with a nominal spatial resolution of 0.083° × 0.083° and compared to long-term direct measurements of 222Rn exhalation rates in different areas of Europe. The two realizations of the 222Rn flux map, based on the different soil moisture data sets, both realistically reproduce the observed seasonality in the fluxes but yield considerable differences for absolute flux values. The mean 222Rn flux from soils in Europe is estimated to be 10 mBq m−2 s−1 (ERA-Interim/Land soil moisture) or 15 mBq m−2 s−1 (GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) Noah soil moisture) for the period 2006–2010. The corresponding seasonal variations with low fluxes in winter and high fluxes in summer range in the two realizations from ca. 7 to ca. 14 mBq m−2 s−1 and from ca. 11 to ca. 20 mBq m−2 s−1, respectively. These systematic differences highlight the importance of realistic soil moisture data for a reliable estimation of 222Rn exhalation rates. Comparison with observations suggests that the flux estimates based on the GLDAS Noah soil moisture model on average better represent observed fluxes.
Regional climate model projections underestimate future warming due to missing plant physiological CO2 response
Schwingshackl, Clemens; Davin, Edouard Léopold; Hirschi, Martin; et al. (2019)
Environmental Research Letters
Perspective: Peer Evaluation of Recommendations for CONSORT Guidelines for Randomized Controlled Trials in Nutrition
Weaver, Connie; Ahles, Sanne; Murphy, Karen J.; et al. (2024)
Advances in Nutrition
Creating effective dietary guidance requires a rigorous evidence base that is predominantly developed from robust clinical trials or large-scale cohort studies, with the quality of the data available depending on the completeness and accuracy of their reporting. An international group of academics from 14 institutions in 12 different countries and on 5 continents, working on behalf of the Federation of European Nutrition Societies within its “Improving Standards in the Science of Nutrition” initiative, reviewed the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement checklist as it pertains to nutrition trials. This perspective piece documents the procedure followed to gain input and consensus on the checklist previously published by this group, including its presentation and interrogation at the International Union of Nutritional Sciences International Congress of Nutrition 2022 (IUNS-ICN 22), inputs from a survey of journal editors, and its piloting on 8 nutrition trials of diverse designs. Overall, the initiative has been met with considerable enthusiasm. At IUNS-ICN 22, refinements to our proposal were elicited through a World Café method discussion with participating nutrition scientists. The contributing journal editors provided valuable insights, and the discussion led to the development of a potential tool specific to assess adherence to the proposed nutrition extension checklist. The piloting of the proposed checklist provided evidence from real-life studies that reporting of nutrition trials can be improved. This initiative aims to stimulate further discussion and development of a CONSORT-nutrition-specific extension.
Soil moisture and evapotranspiration
Hirschi, Martin; Davin, Edouard Léopold; Schwingshackl, Clemens; et al. (2020)
Wasserbilanz und Trockenheit
Hirschi, Martin; Davin, Edouard Léopold; Schwingshackl, Clemens; et al. (2019)
Rising greenhouse gas emissions embodied in the global bioeconomy supply chain
Cabernard, Livia; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Pfister, Stephan; et al. (2025)
Communications Earth & Environment
The bioeconomy is key to meeting climate targets. Here, we examine greenhouse gas emissions in the global bioeconomy supply chain (1995-2022) using advanced multi-regional input-output analysis and a global land-use change model. Considering agriculture, forestry, land use, and energy, we assess the carbon footprint of biomass production and examine its end-use by provisioning systems. The footprint increased by 3.3 Gt CO2-eq, with 80% driven by international trade, mainly beef and biochemicals (biofuels, bioplastics, rubber). Biochemicals showed the largest relative increase, doubling due to tropical land-use change (feedstock cultivation) and China's energy-intensive processing. Food from retail contributes most to the total biomass carbon footprint, while food from restaurants and canteens account for >50% of carbon-footprint growth, with three times higher carbon intensity than retail. Our findings emphasize the need for sustainable sourcing strategies and that adopting renewables and halting land-use change could reduce the bioeconomy carbon footprint by almost 60%.

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Clemens Schwingshackl

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