Erich Fischer

Last Name

Fischer

First Name

Erich

ORCID

0000-0003-1931-6737

Organisational unit

03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto

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Publications 1 - 10 of 57

The Biodiversity Exploratories: a large-scale framework project for functional biodiversity research
Klaus, Valentin; Fischer, Erich; Hamer, Ute; et al. (2018)
Grassland Science in Europe ~ Sustainable Meat and Milk Production from Grasslands: Proceedings of the 27th General Meeting of the European Grassland Federation
Land use intensity, rather than plant species richness, affects the leaching risk of multiple nutrients from permanent grasslands
Klaus, Valentin; Kleinebecker, Till; Busch, Verena; et al. (2018)
Global Change Biology
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world
Madakumbura, Gavin D.; Hyungjun, Kim; Utsumi, Nobuyuki; et al. (2019)
Scientific Reports
The Paris agreement was adopted to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Here, we investigate the event-to-event hydroclimatic intensity, where an event is a pair of adjacent wet and dry spells, under future warming scenarios. According to a set of targeted multi-model large ensemble experiments, event-wise intensification will significantly increase globally for an additional 0.5 °C warming beyond 1.5 °C. In high latitudinal regions of the North American continent and Eurasia, this intensification is likely to involve overwhelming increases in wet spell intensity. Western and Eastern North America will likely experience more intense wet spells with negligible changes of dry spells. For the Mediterranean region, enhancement of dry spells seems to be dominating compared to the decrease in wet spell strength, and this will lead to an overall event-wise intensification. Furthermore, the extreme intensification could be 10 times stronger than the mean intensification. The high damage potential of such drastic changes between flood and drought conditions poses a major challenge to adaptation, and the findings suggest that risks could be substantially reduced by achieving a 1.5 °C target.
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; King, Andrew D.; et al. (2024)
Frontiers in Climate
The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.
Effects of mowing, grazing and fertilization on soil seed banks in temperate grasslands in Central Europe
Klaus, Valentin; Schäfer, Deborah; Prati, Daniel; et al. (2018)
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
The Effect of a Short Observational Record on the Statistics of Temperature Extremes
Zeder, Joel; Sippel, Sebastian; Pasche, Olivier C.; et al. (2023)
Geophysical Research Letters
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced a heatwave that broke all previous records. Estimated return levels based on observations up to the year before the event suggested that reaching such high temperatures is not possible in today's climate. We here assess the suitability of the prevalent statistical approach by analyzing extreme temperature events in climate model large ensemble and synthetic extreme value data. We demonstrate that the method is subject to biases, as high return levels are generally underestimated and, correspondingly, the return period of low-likelihood heatwave events is overestimated, if the underlying extreme value distribution is derived from a short historical record. These biases have even increased in recent decades due to the emergence of a pronounced climate change signal. Furthermore, if the analysis is triggered by an extreme event, the implicit selection bias affects the likelihood assessment depending on whether the event is included in the modeling.
Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability
Sippel, Sebastian; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Székely, Enikő; et al. (2021)
Science Advances
Climate warming is unequivocal and exceeds internal climate variability. However, estimates of the magnitude of decadal-scale variability from models and observations are uncertain, limiting determination of the fraction of warming attributable to external forcing. Here, we use statistical learning to extract a fingerprint of climate change that is robust to different model representations and magnitudes of internal variability. We find a best estimate forced warming trend of 0.8°C over the past 40 years, slightly larger than observed. It is extremely likely that at least 85% is attributable to external forcing based on the median variability across climate models. Detection remains robust even when evaluated against models with high variability and if decadal-scale variability were doubled. This work addresses a long-standing limitation in attributing warming to external forcing and opens up opportunities even in the case of large model differences in decadal-scale variability, model structural uncertainty, and limited observational records.
Planning for Compound Hazards during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Climate Information Systems
Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Omumbo, Judy; Lowe, Rachel; et al. (2022)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe
Zeder, Joel; Fischer, Erich (2020)
Weather and Climate Extremes
In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.
Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes
Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Fischer, Erich; Short, Chris J. (2023)
Nature Communications
Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

Publications 1 - 10 of 57

Erich Fischer

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