Do forecasters inform or reassure?
Evaluation of the German real-time data
OPEN ACCESS
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2009-02
Publication Type
Working Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
Citations
Altmetric
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than na¨ıve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
215
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; forecasts; FOREIGN TRADE + FOREIGN ECONOMY; PRIVATE CONSUMPTION; BUSINESS FORECASTS; GERMANY (CENTRAL EUROPE). FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY; FORECASTING BASED ON STATISTICS (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS); REAL-TIME SYSTEMS + EMBEDDED SYSTEMS (OPERATING SYSTEMS); MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS); BRUTTONATIONALEINKOMMEN; MACROECONOMIC MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); KAPITALANLAGE; ECHTZEITSYSTEME + EINGEBETTETE SYSTEME (BETRIEBSSYSTEME); CAPITAL INVESTMENT; DESKRIPTIVE ÖKONOMISCH-MATHEMATISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); PRIVATER KONSUM; SIGNAL-RAUSCH-VERHÄLTNIS (MESSTECHNIK, PHYSIK); DEUTSCHLAND (MITTELEUROPA). BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND; DESCRIPTIVE ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHE PROGNOSE; real-time data; MAKROÖKONOMISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); AUSSENHANDEL + AUSSENWIRTSCHAFT; Quality of statistical data; PROGNOSEN AUF STATISTISCHER BASIS (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK); signal-to-noise ratio; MAXIMUM-ENTROPIE-METHODE (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK); revisions; SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO (MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES, PHYSICS)
Organisational unit
02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute