Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines


Date

2025-02-21

Publication Type

Journal Article

ETH Bibliography

yes

Citations

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Abstract

Successful recovery from extreme weather events is key to avoid long-term poverty implications. Yet, in disaster prone regions, there may not always be enough time to recover between events. There is a common narrative that the resulting incomplete recoveries aggravate adverse impacts, but approaches allowing for a systematic quantitative assessment are missing. Here, we extend an agent-based model to study welfare effects in the Philippines depending on household exposure and income. We find that incomplete recoveries increase cumulative consumption and well-being losses across the study period 2000–2018 by 40%. While low-income households suffer the highest well-being losses, the effect of incomplete recoveries is most relevant for middle-income households. Consequently, losses can be critically underestimated when drawing conclusions about the impacts of recurrent events based on the impacts of individual events. Accounting for incomplete recoveries may help to better prepare for an intensification of extreme events under climate change.

Publication status

published

Editor

Book title

Journal / series

Volume

28 (2)

Pages / Article No.

111733

Publisher

Cell Press

Event

Edition / version

Methods

Software

Geographic location

Date collected

Date created

Subject

Organisational unit

09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus check_circle

Notes

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