High-resolution land use/cover forecasts for Switzerland in the 21st century
OPEN ACCESS
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2024-02-23
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Citations
Altmetric
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
We present forecasts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for Switzerland for three time-steps in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, and at 100-m spatial and 14-class thematic resolution. We modelled the spatial suitability for each LULC class with a neural network (NN) using > 200 predictors and accounting for climate and policy changes. We improved model performance by using a data augmentation algorithm that synthetically increased the number of cells of underrepresented classes, resulting in an overall quantity disagreement of 0.053 and allocation disagreement of 0.15, which indicate good prediction accuracy. These class-specific spatial suitability maps outputted by the NN were then merged in a single LULC map per time-step using the CLUE-S algorithm, accounting for LULC demand for the future and a set of LULC transition rules. As the first LULC forecast for Switzerland at a thematic resolution comparable to available LULC maps for the past, this product lends itself to applications in land-use planning, resource management, ecological and hydraulic modelling, habitat restoration and conservation.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
11
Pages / Article No.
231
Publisher
Nature
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Organisational unit
09599 - Farinotti, Daniel / Farinotti, Daniel
Notes
Funding
Related publications and datasets
Is supplemented by: 10.16904/envidat.458