Longitudinal Healthcare Analytics for Disease Management: Empirical Demonstration for Low Back Pain


Loading...

Date

2020-05

Publication Type

Journal Article

ETH Bibliography

yes

Citations

Altmetric

Data

Abstract

Clinician guidelines recommend health management to tailor the form of care to the expected course of diseases. Hence, in order to decide upon a suitable treatment plan, health professionals benefit from decision support, i.e., predictions about how a disease is to evolve. In clinical practice, such a prediction model requires interpretability. Interpretability, however, is often precluded by complex dynamic models that would be capable of capturing the intrapersonal variability of disease trajectories. Therefore, we develop a cross-sectional ARMA model that allows for inference of the expected course of symptoms. Distinct from traditional time series models, it generalizes to cross-sectional settings and thus patient cohorts (i.e., it is estimated to multiple instead of single disease trajectories). Our model is evaluated according to a longitudinal 52-week study involving 928 patients with low back pain. It achieves a favorable prediction performance while maintaining interpretability. In sum, we provide decision support by informing health professionals about whether symptoms will have the tendency to stabilize or continue to be severe.

Publication status

published

Editor

Book title

Volume

132

Pages / Article No.

113271

Publisher

Elsevier

Event

Edition / version

Methods

Software

Geographic location

Date collected

Date created

Subject

Healthcare analytics; Disease management; Longitudinal monitoring; Time series analysis; Cohort data; Low back pain

Organisational unit

09623 - Feuerriegel, Stefan (ehemalig) / Feuerriegel, Stefan (former) check_circle

Notes

Funding

186932 - Data-driven health management (SNF)

Related publications and datasets