Global warming likely compromises the annual performance of zero-energy buildings while the urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact
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Date
2025-05-15
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
Despite the significant impact of global warming and the urban heat island (UHI) effect on building energy demand, their combined effects are often overlooked, leading to inaccuracies in future energy performance evaluations of Zero-Energy Buildings (ZEBs). This study focused on an operational ZEB located in Virginia, USA, and investigated the impacts of global warming and UHI effect, using the Vatic Weather File Generator (VWFG) and Urban Weather Generator (UWG) models. Then, the influence of combined effect on the future energy demand is evaluated by Design Builder. Moreover, extreme climates are considered to assess the energy systems’ resilience. Results show that total energy demand for space heating and cooling is predicted to increase by 24% and 38% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2100, driven by global warming and the UHI effect. For extreme climates under the RCP4.5 scenario, peak cooling and heating demands are expected to be 33% and 66% higher than the 80-year average, while rising to 39% and 71% under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Furthermore, current climate-based designs are unlikely to enable renewable energy generation to meet zero-energy requirements by 2100. This framework is therefore essential for enhancing the accuracy and reliability of energy system design for ZEBs.
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published
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Journal / series
Volume
126
Pages / Article No.
106385
Publisher
Elsevier
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Edition / version
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Software
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Subject
Global warming; Urban heat island; Zero-energy building; Energy use
Organisational unit
03806 - Carmeliet, Jan / Carmeliet, Jan