sectorgap: An R Package for Consistent Economic Trend Cycle Decomposition


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Author / Producer

Date

2024-01

Publication Type

Working Paper

ETH Bibliography

yes

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Abstract

Determining potential output and the output gap—two inherently unobservable variables—is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying economic output fluctuations consistent with subsectors of the economy. The proposed model is able to capture various correlations between output and a set of aggregate as well as subsector indicators. Estimation of the latent states and parameters is achieved using a simple Gibbs sampling procedure and various plotting options facilitate the assessment of the results. An illustrative example with Swiss data outline data preparation, model definition, estimation, and evaluation using sectorgap.

Publication status

published

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Book title

Volume

514

Pages / Article No.

Publisher

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

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Edition / version

Methods

Software

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Date collected

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Subject

R; state space models; time series; simulation smoother; Gibbs sampling; business cycle; Output gap; potential output

Organisational unit

02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute check_circle
06330 - KOF FB Konjunktur / KOF Macroeconomic forecasting check_circle

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