Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe
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Date
2020-09
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.
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Publication status
published
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Book title
Journal / series
Volume
29
Pages / Article No.
100266
Publisher
Elsevier
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Extreme precipitation; Climate change signal; Observational data; Extreme value statistics; Central Europe; Clausius-Clapeyron scaling
Organisational unit
03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
Notes
Funding
178778 - Understanding and quantifying the occurrence of very rare climate extremes in a changing climate (SNF)
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