Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
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Date
2023
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
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published
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Journal / series
Nature Communications
Volume
14 (1)
Pages / Article No.
4894
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Nature
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Edition / version
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Organisational unit
03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus
Notes
Funding
101003469 - Extreme Events: Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution (EC)
178778 - Understanding and quantifying the occurrence of very rare climate extremes in a changing climate (SNF)
178778 - Understanding and quantifying the occurrence of very rare climate extremes in a changing climate (SNF)