Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe
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Date
2024-03
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps’ flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.
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published
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Book title
Journal / series
Volume
8 (3)
Pages / Article No.
454 - 466
Publisher
Nature
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Edition / version
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Software
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Date collected
Date created
Subject
Biodiversity; Conservation biology
Organisational unit
09553 - Pellissier, Loïc / Pellissier, Loïc
08853 - Zimmermann, Niklaus (Tit.-Prof.) / Zimmermann, Niklaus (Tit.-Prof.)