Dynamic post-earthquake updating of regional damage estimates using Gaussian Processes


Date

2023-06

Publication Type

Journal Article

ETH Bibliography

yes

Citations

Altmetric

Data

Abstract

The widespread earthquake damage to the built environment induces severe short- and long-term societal consequences. Better community resilience may be achieved through well-organized recovery. Decisions to organize the recovery process are taken under intense time pressure using limited, and potentially inaccurate, data on the severity and the spatial distribution of building damage. We propose to use Gaussian Process inference models to fuse the available inspection data with a pre-existing earthquake risk model to dynamically update regional post-earthquake damage estimates and thereby support a well-organized recovery. The proposed method consistently aggregates the gradually incoming building damage inspection data to reduce the uncertainty in ground shaking intensity geographic distribution and to update regional building damage estimates. The performance of the proposed Gaussian Process methodology is demonstrated on one fictitious earthquake scenario and two real earthquake damage datasets. A comparison with purely data-driven methods shows that the proposed method reduces the number of building inspections required to provide reliable and precise damage predictions.

Publication status

published

Editor

Book title

Volume

234

Pages / Article No.

109201

Publisher

Elsevier

Event

Edition / version

Methods

Software

Geographic location

Date collected

Date created

Subject

Post-earthquake damage assessment; Gaussian Process models; Regional earthquake risk models; Uncertainty reduction

Organisational unit

03930 - Stojadinovic, Bozidar / Stojadinovic, Bozidar check_circle

Notes

Funding

821115 - Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for Europe (EC)

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