Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake
OPEN ACCESS
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2017-08-16
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998–2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
44 (15)
Pages / Article No.
7909 - 7918
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Natural climate variability; Global warming hiatus; Large ensemble simulations; Ocean heat uptake; Climate models
Organisational unit
03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas