An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
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Date
2021-01
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.
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published
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Journal / series
Volume
2 (1)
Pages / Article No.
7
Publisher
Springer
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Organisational unit
03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
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Funding
820829 - LC-CLA-08-2018 | RIA | Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (EC)