Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events
OPEN ACCESS
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2017-06-02
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Citations
Altmetric
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Abstract
Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, risks assessments generally focus on univariate statistics. We analyze the co-occurrence of hot and dry summers and show that these are correlated, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts and to design adaptation strategies.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
3 (6)
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
AAAS
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Climate extremes; compound events; climate change; Risk; CMIP5
Organisational unit
03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia