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Measuring and Modeling the Impact of Telework on Transport Demand - Data, Tools and Analysis
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Date
2025
Publication Type
Doctoral Thesis
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
This dissertation investigates the adoption and impacts of telework on transport demand in Switzerland. It addresses four research questions regarding telework’s adoption brought about by the pandemic, identifying the population who teleworks, its management via employer-side incentives and its effect on time allocation, mobility and, ultimately, transport demand. The thesis employs a combination of survey, tracking and time-use data, as well as stated preference experiments. Key methods used are discrete choice models, generalized linear models and ordered probit switching regression – a form of endogenous switching regression. The study finds that telework adoption increased by 15 percentage points during the pandemic, though current employer constraints (binding for around one fourth of the teleworking population) limit further adoption. Hybrid work policies provide only little leverage, highlighting that employees value their baseline telework preferences highly. Telework seems to segment the population, with usual teleworkers (3+ days/week) being relatively more mobile (at counterfactual same telework intensities) and having a preference for public transport as a commuting mode. Meanwhile, overall modal shares are surprisingly stable across teleworker groups and mobility tools are only rebalanced at high telework frequencies (4+ days/week, which is the exception). There, the main adjustments are substituting public transport national and regional subscriptions for the half-fare card. No clear substitution pattern for car can be identified. A key contribution of this work is the development of the OPSR R-package, implementing the ordered probit switching regression framework, addressing selection bias when treatments are ordinal and self-selected and the outcome is continuous. The method is applied to simultaneously model telework adoption and weekly kilometers traveled, accounting for error correlation between the two processes. The results suggest that telework can substantially reduce weekly mileage (by -16%, comparing the current telework situation to the no telework reference), offering a tool for mitigating transport-related negative externalities. While the theory underlying OPSR dates back to Heckman’s seminal work from the 1980s, this thesis demonstrates, that the method is still essential today with applied research often overlooking the possible concern of selection bias. However, this can lead to contradicting policy recommendations and may explain conflicting findings on telework’s impact on transport demand.
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published
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Contributors
Examiner: Kaufmann, David
Examiner : Bierlaire, Michel
Examiner : Hess, Stephane
Examiner: Bernauer, Thomas
Examiner: Axhausen, Kay W.
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Publisher
ETH Zurich
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Organisational unit
09685 - Kaufmann, David / Kaufmann, David
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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