Compound heat wave-drought hazards and impacts on socioeconomic productivity and carbon cycle
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Date
2025
Publication Type
Book Chapter
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events are one of the worst climatic stressors for global sustainable development. However, the physical mechanisms behind CDHW and their impacts on socio-ecosystem productivity remain poorly understood. In this chapter, simulations from a large climate-hydrology model ensemble of 111 members show that the frequency of extreme CDHWs is projected to increase by 10-fold globally under the highest emissions scenario, along with a disproportionately negative impact on vegetation and socioeconomic productivity by the late 21st century. A combination of satellite observations, field measurements, and reanalysis shows that terrestrial water storage and temperature are negatively coupled, and are likely driven by similar atmospheric conditions (e.g., water vapor deficit and energy demand). Limits on water availability are likely to play a more important role in constraining the terrestrial carbon sink than temperature extremes, and over 90% of the global population and GDP could be exposed to increasing CDHW risks in the future, with more severe impacts in poorer or rural areas. This chapter provides crucial insights into assessing and mitigating adverse effects of compound hazards on ecosystems and human well-being, particularly in Africa.
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Publication status
published
Editor
Book title
Climate Change and Rainfall Extremes in Africa: Occurrence, Impacts and Adaptation
Journal / series
Volume
Pages / Article No.
27 - 50
Publisher
Elsevier