The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach
OPEN ACCESS
Author / Producer
Date
2014-09
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Citations
Altmetric
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
73 (3)
Pages / Article No.
1999 - 2022
Publisher
Springer
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Multi-hazard; Multi-risk; Extreme event; Monte Carlo; Markov chain
Organisational unit
02818 - Schweiz. Erdbebendienst (SED) / Swiss Seismological Service (SED)
09459 - Wiemer, Stefan / Wiemer, Stefan
03476 - Giardini, Domenico / Giardini, Domenico
Notes
It was possible to publish this article open access thanks to a Swiss National Licence with the publisher.
Funding
265138 - New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (EC)