Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic
METADATA ONLY
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2022-07
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Citations
Altmetric
METADATA ONLY
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
37 (111)
Pages / Article No.
547 - 599
Publisher
Oxford University Press
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Organisational unit
03988 - Köthenbürger, Marko / Köthenbürger, Marko
Notes
Funding
Related publications and datasets
Is new version of: