Drivers of furture changes in East African precipitation
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Date
2016-11
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
Precipitation amounts over East Africa have been declining over the last decades. These changes and future climate change over the region are highly debated. This study analyzes drivers of future precipitation changes over East Africa by applying a classification of circulation patterns on 15 historical and future members of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment. Typical circulation types (CTs) are obtained. Under a high emission scenario, changes in the frequency of occurrence of these CTs attribute for 23% of the total change in precipitation over East Africa by the end of the century. The remaining part (77%) is not related to East African synoptics, e.g. changes in moisture content, local/mesoscale feedbacks, and changes in moisture influx. These other effects comprise increases in precipitation close to the equator and the Somali region, while decreases are found over northwestern Ethiopia, the Sudan region and the lake areas.
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Publication status
published
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Book title
Journal / series
Volume
11 (11)
Pages / Article No.
114011
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Event
Edition / version
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Software
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Date collected
Date created
Subject
Circulation classification; Regional climate modeling; Precipitation; Weather atlas; Thermodynamics; Large-scale synoptics
Organisational unit
03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia