Prediction of AADT on a nationwide network based on an accessibility-weighted centrality measure
Axhausen, Kay W.
- Working Paper
In the present paper a direct demand modelling approach for AADT prediction on a nationwide network is presented. A particular focus if given on the construction of a variable that can capture the interregional demand patterns by taking into account the direction of potential interactions over space, called accessibility-weighted centrality, by applying different modifications on the stress centrality measure, tailored for the task of AADT prediction. It is exhibited that it can lead to a significant enhancement on the accuracy of the models. In addition to the already tested models in the literature, two SAR models are estimated and it is shown that GWR and kriging are more appropriate for interpolation purposes, while spatial error and OLS models might give slightly worse results but they have the potential to be applied both for interpolation and forecasting since their estimated parameters are unbiased and consistent. A comparison of models predictive accuracy to the output of a traditional four-step model is conducted to show that direct demand models on nationwide scale can constitute a trustworthy alternative to more advanced, but definitely more data demanding and computationally burdensome models Show more
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Journal / seriesArbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
PublisherIVT, ETH Zürich
Organisational unit03521 - Axhausen, Kay W.
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