
Open access
Date
2015-07-16Type
- Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely used P − E (precipitation − evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5-based assessment that projected changes in mean annual P − E are generally not significant, except for high-latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical and also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that approximately 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Based on these findings, we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000103258Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Geophysical Research LettersVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
American Geophysical UnionOrganisational unit
03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
Notes
Received 4 April 2015, Accepted 8 June 2015, Accepted article online 11 June 2015, Published online 4 July 2015. Published online by Wiley.More
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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