Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling
dc.contributor.author
Schaefli, Bettina
dc.contributor.author
Harman, Ciaran J.
dc.contributor.author
Sivapalan, Murugesu
dc.contributor.author
Schymanski, Stan
dc.date.accessioned
2022-06-23T09:26:38Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T18:52:20Z
dc.date.available
2019-09-10T10:33:03Z
dc.date.available
2022-06-23T09:26:38Z
dc.date.issued
2010-10-05
dc.identifier.issn
1812-2116
dc.identifier.issn
1812-2108
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hessd-7-7779-2010
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/103367
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000103367
dc.description.abstract
Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be rea-sonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space isdifficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular placesto define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal withthe likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changedconditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgentprediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and predictionunder global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remainvalid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral mod-eling, is to assume that these universal and time-invariant organizing principles canbe used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values)and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. The organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empiricallaws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places andscales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover theseorganizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscapestructure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is thatthe new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new visionfor hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior ofcatchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions
ethz.journal.volume
7
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. earth syst. sci.
ethz.pages.start
7779
en_US
ethz.pages.end
7808
en_US
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03812 - Or, Dani (emeritus) / Or, Dani (emeritus)
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03812 - Or, Dani (emeritus) / Or, Dani (emeritus)
ethz.relation.isPreviousVersionOf
10.3929/ethz-b-000043612
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T18:53:26Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365366096ce13059
ethz.ecitpid
pub:161608
ethz.eth
no
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T05:44:19Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2023-02-07T03:43:59Z
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true
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