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Author
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Date
2015-11-16Type
- Journal Article
Citations
Cited 69 times in
Web of Science
Cited 69 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
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Abstract
Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000106913Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Scientific ReportsVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
Nature Publishing GroupSubject
Applied mathematics; Complex networks; Computational models; EpidemiologyOrganisational unit
03733 - Herrmann, Hans Jürgen (emeritus) / Herrmann, Hans Jürgen (emeritus)
03784 - Helbing, Dirk / Helbing, Dirk
Related publications and datasets
Is cited by: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000270037
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Show all metadata
Citations
Cited 69 times in
Web of Science
Cited 69 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics