Araújo, Nuno A.M.
Herrmann, Hans J.
- Journal Article
Rights / licenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process Show more
Journal / seriesScientific Reports
Pages / Article No.
PublisherNature Publishing Group
SubjectApplied mathematics; Complex networks; Computational models; Epidemiology
Organisational unit03733 - Herrmann, Hans Jürgen / Herrmann, Hans Jürgen
03784 - Helbing, Dirk / Helbing, Dirk
Related publications and datasets
Is cited by: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000270037
MoreShow all metadata