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dc.contributor.author
Frölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.author
Paynter, David J.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-04-06T13:05:28Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T21:47:07Z
dc.date.available
2018-04-06T13:05:28Z
dc.date.issued
2015-07
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/108132
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000108132
dc.description.abstract
The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject
Carbon dioxide emissions
en_US
dc.subject
Gobal warming
en_US
dc.subject
Earth System Modeling
en_US
dc.subject
Carbon budgets
en_US
dc.subject
2 °Cwarming target
en_US
dc.subject
CMIP5
en_US
dc.title
Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2015-07-10
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
10
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
7
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. res. lett.
ethz.pages.start
075002
en_US
ethz.size
9 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
005253059
ethz.publication.place
Britstol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T21:47:54Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593653c8f387c37599
ethz.ecitpid
pub:168919
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-18T18:31:49Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T17:33:07Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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