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dc.contributor.author
Laufkötter, Charlotte
dc.contributor.author
Vogt, Meike
dc.contributor.author
Gruber, Nicolas
dc.contributor.author
Aumont, Olivier
dc.contributor.author
Bopp, Laurent
dc.contributor.author
Doney, Scott C.
dc.contributor.author
Dunne, John P.
dc.contributor.author
Hauck, Judith
dc.contributor.author
John, Jasmin G.
dc.contributor.author
Lima, Ivan D.
dc.contributor.author
Séférian, Roland
dc.contributor.author
Völker, Christoph
dc.date.accessioned
2018-11-06T17:10:49Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T21:47:38Z
dc.date.available
2018-11-06T17:10:49Z
dc.date.issued
2015
dc.identifier.issn
1810-6277
dc.identifier.issn
1810-6285
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/bgd-12-19941-2015
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/108191
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000108191
dc.description.abstract
Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Projected decreases in future marine export production: The role of carbon fluxes through the upper ocean ecosystem
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2015-12-14
ethz.journal.title
Biogeosciences Discussions
ethz.journal.volume
12
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Biogeosci. discuss.
ethz.pages.start
19941
en_US
ethz.pages.end
19998
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
010153508
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
ethz.relation.isPreviousVersionOf
10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T21:47:54Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593653ca0ed7718532
ethz.ecitpid
pub:168983
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-25T10:06:26Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T17:11:07Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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