Debunking mathematically the logical fallacy that cancer risk is just “bad luck”
Open access
Date
2015-12-01Type
- Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics
Abstract
Tomasetti and Vogelstein recently proposed that the majority of variation in cancer risk among tissues is due to “bad luck,” that is, random mutations arising during DNA replication in normal noncancerous stem cells. They generalize this finding to cancer overall, claiming that “the stochastic effects of DNA replication appear to be the major contributor to cancer in humans.” We show that this conclusion results from a logical fallacy based on ignoring the influence of population heterogeneity in correlations exhibited at the level of the whole population. Because environmental and genetic factors cannot explain the huge differences in cancer rates between different organs, it is wrong to conclude that these factors play a minor role in cancer rates. In contrast, we show that one can indeed measure huge differences in cancer rates between different organs and, at the same time, observe a strong effect of environmental and genetic factors in cancer rates. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000108697Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
EPJ Nonlinear Biomedical PhysicsVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
SpringerSubject
Cancer risk; Familial adenomatous polyposis; Lung cancer risk; Cancer rate; Huge differenceOrganisational unit
03738 - Sornette, Didier (emeritus) / Sornette, Didier (emeritus)
More
Show all metadata
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics