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dc.contributor.author
Russo, Simone
dc.contributor.author
Sillmann, Jana
dc.contributor.author
Fischer, Erich M.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-04-26T10:23:17Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T22:48:51Z
dc.date.available
2018-04-26T10:23:17Z
dc.date.issued
2015-12
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/109725
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000109725
dc.description.abstract
Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21‐member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the 'business as usual' scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject
Heat wave magnitude index daily
en_US
dc.subject
Extreme temperatures
en_US
dc.subject
European heatwaves
en_US
dc.subject
Heat wave magnitude unit
en_US
dc.subject
Russian heatwave
en_US
dc.subject
Finland heatwave
en_US
dc.subject
Heatwave projections
en_US
dc.title
Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2015-11-27
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
10
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
12
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. res. lett.
ethz.pages.start
124003
en_US
ethz.size
15 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
005253059
ethz.publication.place
Britstol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T22:49:34Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593653e76da3a80781
ethz.ecitpid
pub:170847
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-26T05:47:43Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T18:33:13Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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