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dc.contributor.author
Huneeus, Nicolás
dc.contributor.author
Basart, Sara
dc.contributor.author
Fiedler, Stephanie
dc.contributor.author
Morcrette, Jean-Jacques
dc.contributor.author
Benedetti, Angela
dc.contributor.author
Mulcahy, Jane
dc.contributor.author
Terradellas, Enric
dc.contributor.author
Pérez García-Pando, Carlos
dc.contributor.author
Pejanović, Goran
dc.contributor.author
Ničković, Slobodan
dc.contributor.author
Arsenovic, Pavle
dc.contributor.author
Schulz, Michael
dc.contributor.author
Cuevas, Emilio
dc.contributor.author
Baldasano, José M.
dc.contributor.author
Pey, Jorge
dc.contributor.author
Rémy, Samuel
dc.contributor.author
Cvetkovic, B.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-10-29T10:07:59Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T06:09:56Z
dc.date.available
2018-10-29T10:07:59Z
dc.date.issued
2016
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7375
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7367
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000116556
dc.description.abstract
In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2016-04-21
ethz.journal.title
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ethz.journal.volume
16
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
8
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Atmos. chem. phys.
ethz.pages.start
4967
en_US
ethz.pages.end
4986
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
004294181
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T06:14:25Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365467aeb9d17570
ethz.ecitpid
pub:178430
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-14T13:18:49Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-10-29T10:08:15Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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