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dc.contributor.author
Carraro, Luca
dc.contributor.author
Mari, Lorenzo
dc.contributor.author
Hartikainen, Hanna
dc.contributor.author
Strepparava, Nicole
dc.contributor.author
Wahli, Thomas
dc.contributor.author
Jokela, Jukka
dc.contributor.author
Gatto, Marino
dc.contributor.author
Rinaldo, Andrea
dc.contributor.author
Bertuzzo, Enrico
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-06T14:44:53Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T12:02:46Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-06T14:44:53Z
dc.date.issued
2016-09-05
dc.identifier.issn
1756-3305
dc.identifier.other
10.1186/s13071-016-1759-z
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/120127
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000120127
dc.description.abstract
Background Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans and salmonids as hosts. Incidence and severity of PKD in brown trout populations have recently increased rapidly, causing a decline in fish catches and local extinctions in many river systems. PKD incidence and fish mortality are known to be enhanced by warmer water temperatures. Therefore, environmental change is feared to increase the severity of PKD outbreaks and extend the disease range to higher latitude and altitude regions. We present the first mathematical model regarding the epidemiology of PKD, including the complex life-cycle of its causative agent across multiple hosts. Methods A dynamical model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host populations is developed. The model accounts for local demographic and epidemiological dynamics of bryozoans and fish, explicitly incorporates the role of temperature, and couples intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal dynamics. The former are described in a continuous-time domain, the latter in a discrete-time domain. Stability and sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the key processes controlling parasite invasion and persistence. Results Stability analysis shows that, for realistic parameter ranges, a disease-free system is highly invasible, which implies that the introduction of the parasite in a susceptible community is very likely to trigger a disease outbreak. Sensitivity analysis shows that, when the disease is endemic, the impact of PKD outbreaks is mostly controlled by the rates of disease development in the fish population. Conclusions The developed mathematical model helps further our understanding of the modes of transmission of PKD in wild salmonid populations, and provides the basis for the design of interventions or mitigation strategies. It can also be used to project changes in disease severity and prevalence because of temperature regime shifts, and to guide field and laboratory experiments.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
BioMed Central
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Discrete-continuous hybrid model
en_US
dc.subject
Climate change
en_US
dc.subject
Disease ecology
en_US
dc.subject
Fredericella sultana
en_US
dc.title
An epidemiological model for proliferative kidney disease in salmonid populations
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Parasites & Vectors
ethz.journal.volume
9
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Parasit. vectors
ethz.pages.start
487
en_US
ethz.size
16 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
005546256
ethz.publication.place
London
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T12:07:02Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654aeb874a22965
ethz.ecitpid
pub:182179
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T13:28:39Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-06-06T14:45:02Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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