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dc.contributor.author
Jaun, Simon
dc.contributor.author
Ahrens, Bodo
dc.contributor.author
Walser, André
dc.contributor.author
Ewen, Tracy
dc.contributor.author
Schär, Christoph M.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-07-04T11:38:44Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-08T20:30:18Z
dc.date.available
2019-07-04T11:38:44Z
dc.date.issued
2008
dc.identifier.issn
1561-8633
dc.identifier.issn
1684-9981
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/nhess-8-281-2008
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/12097
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000012097
dc.description.abstract
Appropriate precautions in the case of flood occurrence often require long lead times (several days) in hydrological forecasting. This in turn implies large uncertainties that are mainly inherited from the meteorological precipitation forecast. Here we present a case study of the extreme flood event of August 2005 in the Swiss part of the Rhine catchment (total area 34 550 km2). This event caused tremendous damage and was associated with precipitation amounts and flood peaks with return periods beyond 10 to 100 years. To deal with the underlying intrinsic predictability limitations, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS that downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. We document the setup of the coupled system and assess its performance for the flood event under consideration. We show that the probabilistic meteorological-hydrological ensemble prediction chain is quite effective and provides additional guidance for extreme event forecasting, in comparison to a purely deterministic forecasting system. For the case studied, it is also shown that most of the benefits of the probabilistic approach may be realized with a comparatively small ensemble size of 10 members.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
dc.title
A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic
dc.date.published
2008-04-02
ethz.journal.title
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
8
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
2
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Nat. hazards earth syst. sci.
ethz.pages.start
281
en_US
ethz.pages.end
291
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
004552015
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-08T20:30:33Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364c10e8ae329260
ethz.ecitpid
pub:23371
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-15T08:49:55Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-07-04T11:38:54Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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