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dc.contributor.author
O'Neill, Brian C.
dc.contributor.author
Tebaldi, Claudia
dc.contributor.author
Van Vuuren, Detlef P.
dc.contributor.author
Eyring, Veronika
dc.contributor.author
Friedlingstein, Pierre
dc.contributor.author
Hurtt, George
dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.contributor.author
Kriegler, Elmar
dc.contributor.author
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
dc.contributor.author
Lowe, Jason
dc.contributor.author
Meehl, Gerald A.
dc.contributor.author
Moss, Richard
dc.contributor.author
Riahi, Keywan
dc.contributor.author
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-05-16T08:13:58Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T14:00:08Z
dc.date.available
2017-11-30T17:57:07Z
dc.date.available
2019-05-16T08:13:58Z
dc.date.issued
2016
dc.identifier.issn
1991-9603
dc.identifier.issn
1991-959X
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/121420
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000121420
dc.description.abstract
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus Publications
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2016-09-28
ethz.journal.title
Geoscientific Model Development
ethz.journal.volume
9
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Geosci. model dev.
ethz.pages.start
3461
en_US
ethz.pages.end
3482
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
010180250
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T14:03:56Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654c64302c85203
ethz.ecitpid
pub:183518
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T19:32:31Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T19:04:46Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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