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dc.contributor.author
Murphy, Shane
dc.contributor.author
Scala, Antonio
dc.contributor.author
Herrero, Andre
dc.contributor.author
Lorito, Stefano
dc.contributor.author
Festa, Gaetano
dc.contributor.author
Trasatti, Elisa
dc.contributor.author
Tonini, Roberto
dc.contributor.author
Romano, Fabrizio
dc.contributor.author
Molinari, Irene
dc.contributor.author
Nielsen, Stefan
dc.date.accessioned
2018-10-12T12:56:47Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T14:15:42Z
dc.date.available
2018-10-12T12:56:47Z
dc.date.issued
2016-10-11
dc.identifier.issn
2045-2322
dc.identifier.other
10.1038/srep35007
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/121552
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000121552
dc.description.abstract
The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Nature Publishing Group
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Seismology
en_US
dc.subject
Natural hazards
en_US
dc.title
Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Scientific Reports
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Sci Rep
ethz.pages.start
35007
en_US
ethz.size
12 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
006751867
ethz.publication.place
London
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02330 - Dep. Erdwissenschaften / Dep. of Earth Sciences::02506 - Institut für Geophysik / Institute of Geophysics::03476 - Giardini, Domenico / Giardini, Domenico
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02330 - Dep. Erdwissenschaften / Dep. of Earth Sciences::02506 - Institut für Geophysik / Institute of Geophysics::03476 - Giardini, Domenico / Giardini, Domenico
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T14:17:07Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654c8c77e012281
ethz.ecitpid
pub:183665
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-20T15:51:12Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T02:04:56Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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